Isko's candidacy unwittingly helping VP Leni

In Sun Tzu's “The Art of War,” the principle enunciated by great war generals like Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar, Richard the Lionhearted, Napoleon Bonaparte, Douglas MacArthur, and George Patton had been explained and illustrated: The enemy of your enemy is your ally. In territories where your enemy is stronger than you, the emergence of another invading force will help your attack forces achieve your ultimate objective to conquer him.

Aside from Northern Luzon, the biggest stronghold of Bongbong Marcos is Metro Manila, which is 90 per cent dominated by urban poor settlers, rabidly loyal to the Marcoses, as shown by concrete evidence of an avalanche of votes for BBM in 2016. You cannot argue against facts. Marcos won over Robredo in all the 16 cities and one municipality comprising Metro Manila. And so, with Isko running, Marcos’ forces in this critical area shall be neutralized and demolished by Isko. Good for Leni who can now focus on defending her territories in Bicol, Southern Tagalog, the whole Visayas except Leyte, and Northern and Western Mindanao, including the Muslim Bangsamoro.

Comelec statistics shows that in 2016, Marcos got 390,356 votes in Manila with Robredo getting only 181,421 votes. In 2022, we predict that Isko will take away from BBM no less than 300,00 votes, while Leni will hold on to hers, plus even more, to make them more than 200,000. Marcos got no less than 412,494 in Quezon City with Leni got only 297,798. Isko will get 200,000 votes from BBM and Leni can easily increase hers to 350,000. In Caloocan, BBM got 243,630 while Leni got only 128,321. Isko will take away from BBM 150,000 and Leni can increase hers to 150,000. BBM will end up with crumbs.

In Pasig, Marcos got 129,145 versus Leni's 103,040. Because of Vico Sotto's leadership, the Marcos votes will shift to Ping Lacson and the other half to Isko. That means 50,000 each for Ping and Isko and 29,145 for BBM. Leni will keep her votes intact. Any additional voters shall be dispersed in the same proportion. In Makati, Marcos got 148,883 while Leni got only 91,059. Now with Binay in Leni's senatorial slate, this will be reversed, and whatever BBM intends to get will also be grabbed by Isko. In Valenzuela, Marcos got 116,278 while Leni garnered 66,946. In 2022, Isko will halve BBM's votes and Leni will even increase hers.

There are some twists here. Las Piñas may go for Bong Go. In 2016, Marcos got 97,641 there, courtesy of the Villars. These will shift to Bong Go. Leni will hold on to her 63,456 and can even increase it because her lawyer, Atty. Mac, is an emerging leader in Las Piñas. In Muntinlupa, Mayor Jaime Fresnedi and Congressman Ruffy Biazon are both LP and for Leni. So BBM will no longer get his 86,252 votes in 2016, while Leni's former votes of 68,843 will be doubled with the Fresnedi and Biazon support. The same story for Pasay, San Juan, Malabon, Navotas, and Parañaque.

There is an unverified support that the Cayetanos will secretly support Mayor Lani's fellow Bicolana, Leni. So, goodbye to BBM's 86,068 votes. Alan Peter got 134,342 votes in 2019 and these will now go to Leni to be added to her own 41,714 for the combined Taguig-Pateros constituency.