Beijing’s Hong Kong dilemma
The massive protests and demonstrations in Hong Kong last week that had almost a million people in the streets, protesting the proposed extradition law in the Hong Kong legislature has shaken the pro-Beijing Hong Kong government and Beijing. As of last Saturday, the debate on the proposed bill has been postponed indefinitely, but the proposal has not been withdrawn. Last Sunday, the protest organizers have decided to proceed with the demonstrations with more than a million people, and this time they are demanding the resignation of Lam, the head of the Hong Kong government.
While the demonstrators were dominated by young people in their twenties and thirties, it had the backing of the business people, the merchants, and the professionals. The Hong Kong Bar Association even issued a statement supporting the rallies.
Having just recollected/celebrated the 30th year of the Tiananmen incident a few days earlier, the proposed extradition bill was bad timing for the Hong Kong Legislature, or a case of overconfidence, having forgotten the three months of pro-democracy rallies in 2014, and having jailed the organizers of those demonstrations.
Now, the Hong Kong Government and Beijing are in a dilemma. The suspension of the debate is a partial back down that may embolden the demonstrators and weaken the Hong Kong government and indirectly Beijing’s control of Hong Kong. On the other hand, to take the hard line of cracking down on the protesters and arresting the leaders, at a time when other countries and world opinion are already critical of the gassing and other violent responses of the Hong Kong police, would damage the economic/investment reputation of Hong Kong. There is also no assurance that these will cow down and stop the protests and may even highlight the authoritarian intentions of Beijing in China and in the rest of their territories.
The proposed law is titled, “Fugitive Offenders Ordinance and the Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters Ordinance”. It is supposedly to ensure that fugitives from the mainland cannot hide in Hong Kong without fear of being extradited to the mainland. The tenor of the bill, however, encompassed many other crimes and covered not just the mainland criminals but all criminals in Hong Kong and may even cover foreign nationals. And considering the opaque justice system in mainland China, everybody saw the danger of the potential abuses with this extradition law.
At a time, when China’s world reputation is taking a beating with the US- China Trade War, the foreclosure of assets from developing countries that borrowed from China, the Huawei problems on cybersecurity, and the legal/ecological violations in the South China Sea, this Hong Kong problem will further drag down Beijing’s prestige, reputation, and negotiating position. In the Philippines, the ramming of a Filipino fishing boat and abandonment of the distressed survivors is adding fuel to this situation.
This early, tourism in Hong Kong is already affected as there are travel advisories to tourists to avoid some areas, and these are also shopping areas. Another few months of on/off demonstrations will surely diminish tourist transits and inflows.
Whichever option Hong Kong/Beijing will take, investment and capital flight will happen like what happened in the 1997 turnover of Hong Kong to China. Singapore, Canada, Australia, and some Asian countries will like be the direction and beneficiaries. But more telling will be the migration of young talented people out of Hong Kong which will affect its future as a bustling entrepreneurial city-state.
Beijing is surely aware of this dilemma and keeping a low profile on this Hong Kong problem is in the right direction. But the long-term implication of this event has to do with the impact of a growing economy and advances in technology in Hong Kong and in China on an emerging liberal democracy in China.
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