Why PNoy's endorsement matters
After the last SONA of President Aquino where he practically said his "goodbyes," some politicians and political analysts have opined that PNoy is now a lame duck president who would be less influential, and would be coasting along to the end of his term with a minimum of controversy and fanfare. Between work and getting stuck in traffic due to the unusually heavy two-hour rain during the SONA, I listened to an hour and forty minutes of the speech. The best impression I had on the speech was his statement that his work so far, was not the end of what has to be done, but the beginning of a new way of governance. Then he proceeded to enumerate important bills that the Senate and the House of Representatives have to pass, among them are the Anti-Dynasty Law, the BBL, and rationalization of incentives. Surely, these are not the plans of a president-politician who is about to ride into the sunset.
Another thing that strikes me about PNoy is his sincerity. You can fault him for many things, like lack of managerial skills, or inadequate people skills, or inexperience and others; but he truly comes across as a sincere person and this gives him credibility. So with a net satisfaction rating now in the high 50 percent, which I will venture to project to the high 70 percent by second quarter next year, the endorsement of PNoy could be the winning margin for the next president. There is a very high probability that the Philippine economy will continue to grow at 6 percent to 7 percent in 2015 and in the first quarter of 2016, with higher domestic and foreign investments, higher government spending and private consumption. Election spending will also add to these, so that even factoring a China slowdown, the Philippine economy will grow at these high rates. This will add to the satisfaction rating of PNoy and enhance his endorsing power.
Looking at the Cabinet, sub-Cabinet, the senators and congressmen and other officials allied with PNoy, it looks like he can hold on to at least 70 percent of them. At the Cabinet level, most are sincere and credible professionals, the likes of Singson, Gregorio, Luistro, Tetangco, Purisima and Jimenez. While they are not politicians in the strictest sense, these people have relatives, friends and followers that they can influence. More so, the senators, congressmen, governors, mayors and other politicians who are in the PNoy team now and believe in him. These are a lot of voting power that can be easily harnessed by PNoy if he chooses to do so, and which I believe he will, to continue his program of "good governance."
The Philippine's presidential form of government is more centralized than the US presidential form of government or of even other presidential form of governments, like France or Turkey. The US has federal states whose governors and legislatures also wields significant power.
Some European presidents have actually limited power with the actual power residing with the Prime Minister and Parliament. The Philippine president has more power, that's why Marcos succeeded in declaring martial law, and that's why we should amend the Philippine Constitution and make it a federal form of government. But at the moment, this makes PNoy a formidable opponent in the coming election even if he is not running, if he wants to wield his power and influence. He can call on the markers and rally his troops to support his anointed candidates. After having been a congressman, a senator, and president for five years, I am sure he knows how to yield power.
I have voted in eight presidential elections, and have quite a string of political relatives. I was and am an observer and involved in some of the political activities as a citizen voter. In the last five years, I am happy to conclude and report, that one of the greatest achievement of the PNoy presidency in his term so far, is to raise the "bar" or "standard" for those aspiring for the presidency and other elective positions, in terms of morals, ethics and governance. Having impeached a Supreme Court chief justice, jailed or charged an successor, three senators, some congressmen, and a number of other government officials have improved good governance. Accountability, transparency and conflict of interest issues are now topics among politicians and government officials. Reforming our political system may not happen overnight or in the short term because we have been doing it wrong and badly for 70 years. But and yet, it looks like we are turning a corner and starting to do it right. My hope is that, we have raise the bar or standard for all political candidates who are running in the coming election, and the elections to come, and we will elect better government officials in the years to come.
Will a PNoy endorsement enough to make his candidates win? If the contest is close and the percentage differences are in single digits, it will, like in the case of President Ramos and Speaker Mitra. But it would not, if the margin is large like in the case of De Venecia and Estrada. Still the Aquino name, because of Ninoy and Cory still carry a lot of weight, and PNoy's endorsement in the 2013 election was successful. So as they say of "Godzilla," size does matter. In this particular case, the size of PNoy's influence would matter.
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