Helpless and alone against China

I fully agree with Ateneo professor Benito Lim that the Philippines cannot rely on the United States to intervene on our behalf in face of Chinese provocations in the South China Sea, our mutual defense treaty with the US notwithstanding.

The US has its own interests to look after. Unless those interests get directly compromised by Chinese provocations against a third party, the US cannot be expected to involve itself in a dispute it has little or nothing to do with.

To be sure, America has relatively strong ties with the Philippines. But these ties are largely sentimental and thus tend to get over-romanticized. Try viewing these ties in the glare of Philippine-Chinese realities and see how quickly the scenario changes dramatically.

The only time the US might be compelled to intervene on the basis of our mutual defense treaty is if China actually attacks the Philippines. But why would China do a stupid thing like that when it knows it can get us in some other, less costly way.

There are many ways to skin a cat, so to speak. And the method China has employed very successfully in taking over an increasing number of tiny disputed isles and rocky outcrops in the South China Sea is by simply scaring us away.

There is no need for China to use unnecessary force and risk forcing the hand of America under its mutual defense treaty obligations with the Philippines when the mere flexing of even just some of its muscles is enough to keep us at bay.

This gambit has already paid off handsomely for China. All it does is send in its fishing fleet, followed by its maritime enforcement units, and then its naval arm to provide a complete and impenetrable scare blanket around the islets it covets.

For as long as the Philippines cannot match China's military might, it will always remain an angry but helpless observer of China's slow but steady occupation of territories, never mind if their ownership is being disputed not only by the Philippines but other countries as well.

Of course, the United States cannot afford to give the impression that it is abandoning an old friend in its time of need. Not only is it bad PR, it might even undermine its other ties with countries whose support and friendship it does value more for its own interests.

The United States cannot be seen as an unreliable partner, especially since it has been racking up a growing list of enemies sworn to fight for its destruction. It will continue to be a friend, in a kind of friendship dictated by its own needs and interests.

Thus, as far as the Philippines is concerned, the United States wants to continue having us as a friend. It can find no better and more loyal ally than us. Who else is willing to give its all despite always getting the short end of a lopsided friendship.

Unless China will attack the Philippines, of which it makes no sense to do so, the United States will never ever step in between the two to become a needless party to a sorry dispute. Yet it will continue to do things to maintain the illusion of being on the side of the Philippines.

One way of perpetuating the illusion of friendship is by constantly sending its warships to Philippine ports to refuel and visit, which is nothing but a revival of a function it lost on the closure of its bases here, but which the Philippines misinterprets as a warning to China.

Darn if China sees the visits as a warning, or whether it trembles at the sight if it sees the visits that way. Had China been intimidated by the visits, it would have stopped its provocations in the South China Sea. On the contrary, it has stepped up the provocations.

Another way the US keeps the illusion of friendship is by giving us mothballed patrol craft which we only too happily reinvented as warships. What remains unsaid is that the US is giving us sticks to pick our own fights alone. Let's see what China thinks about it.