Why typhoon Pablo managed to spare most of the island of Cebu when weather forecasts were almost unanimous in saying it lay directly in its path just hours before it made landfall in the eastern seaboard of Mindanao is something for the experts to explain.
In fact, even without expert explanation, those who have been mindful of the weather will understand that typhoons born in the western Pacific normally follow a generally northwestern track.
Armed with a map and ruler, therefore, any person can almost accurately project that if a typhoon enters the Philippine east of Samar and follows a generally northwestern track, it will likely affect Eastern Visayas, Bicol, and on Metro Manila and Central Luzon.
But if a typhoon enters the Philippines much lower such as east of Mindanao, and granting it follows the normal northeastern track, then the areas that are in peril are northeastern Mindanao, Central and Western Visayas, and on to Mindoro and northern Palawan.
Yet on two occasions, both of which have very very rarely happened before, typhoons Sendong and Pablo, both born east of Mindanao, did not follow the usual northwestern track but veered suddenly due west on making landfall.
As a consequence, while both ravaged central and northern Mindanao, areas heretofore very very seldom visited by typhoons, much of Central Visayas, particularly Cebu, got spared the brunt of these weather disturbances.
Now, as said earlier, there will always be expert explanations for these unexpected diversions. But if you pay close attention to what people in Cebu are saying after these storms, they have another explanation rooted far from expertise.
Shorn of intricacies, their explanation is simply that the Santo Niño protected them from harm. And who can really argue with that. Forget the barometer graphs. Ignore the satellite images. Never mind the Doppler radar readings.
When you have faith and truly believe the Santo Niño is responsible for your safety, no scientific explanation is necessary. If such explanation is available, as it must, it will only serve to strengthen what people believe in their hearts, but never to detract from it.