Addressing the world’s future challenges today

MANILA, Philippines - Thinking about life on Earth in 2050 may almost always paint an image of a world so technologically advanced that machinery and virtual reality are a commonplace in our everyday lives. With much promise of advancement and innovation in the future, people seem to overlook another layer of development in terms of the basic things that we need the most – energy, water and food.

Jeremy Bentham is one man who has given much thought about what lies ahead for the world’s energy, water and food systems. As head of Global Business Environment of Royal Dutch Shell plc, much of his work entails developing forward-looking scenarios that will guide Shell’s strategic thinking and direction-setting through analyzing long-term trends in economics, energy supply and demand, as well as geopolitical shifts and social change, among others.

So what would our planet be like four decades from now?

According to a report by the UN Human Settlements Program, the Earth will be home to nine billion people – up from today’s seven billion – and three out of four of these people will live in cities. This rapid population growth and urbanization will also be accompanied by growth in emerging economies, which will increase prosperity, enabling people to enjoy higher standards of living.

“While prosperity is a very positive development, we have to be aware that this comes with demand, supply and environmental pressures,” explains Bentham. “Having nine billion people on Earth is like adding another China and another India to the world. Much more, the rate of urban development that we are looking at is similar to building one new city of 1.3 million people each week for the next 40 years.”

Shell has been working on possible energy scenarios since the early 1970s. In 2011, the company released a report, “Signals & Signposts,” which outlines the concept of the “zone of uncertainty” or the big gap between resource supply growth and demand. This is when the concerns on energy-water-food nexus, or the tightly-linked relationship among the three resources, become more apparent. 

The energy-water-food nexus is among the world’s key systems. Water is needed for almost all forms of energy production; energy is necessary to treat and transport water; and food production requires both water and energy.

We may not think much about it, but the energy-water-food nexus is an integral part of our everyday lives. For every calorie of food we take in, five calories of fossil fuel energy are used in the supply chain, on a global average. Each cup of coffee is associated with 140 liters of water, a glass of wine about 120 liters, and a kilo of beef a staggering 15,500 liters.

The energy-water-food nexus, unfortunately, is currently experiencing stress as the global population rapidly increases, more and more people live in cities, and resource demands continue to grow – hence the concept of energy-water-food stress nexus.

The figures surrounding the energy-water-food stress nexus are daunting. The UN estimates that by 2030, the world would need 40-50 percent more energy, water and food to keep up with demand. Additionally, Oxfam estimates that these stresses could lead to the doubling of food prices by 2030.

“The energy-water-food stress nexus is a serious global challenge that we all need to look at and help resolve, as we need to be able to provide the additional resources in ways that significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions,” says Bentham.

“And because the challenge is magnified many times by the strong linkages between energy, water and food, it is therefore critical to approach this with a ‘systems thinking’ approach and address these resource needs not individually, but as a nexus.”

Near the end of 2013, the Philippines experienced what was reported as one of the world’s most devastating natural calamities – Yolanda is a stark illustration of how deeply-intertwined the energy, water and food systems are. Hundreds of thousands of people suffered from water and food shortages, and the lack of power supply made their situation worse, as relief operations could not be carried out efficiently and communication was impossible.

As we move towards rebuilding the Yolanda-distraught areas, Bentham says that this could be an opportunity to address the energy-water-food stress nexus and create sustainable solutions that can increase the cities’ resilience to natural calamities.

“Among the key things in achieving sustainability is promoting energy efficiency through urban planning and development,” Bentham states. “The Philippine government can look at innovative solutions around smarter infrastructure – rebuilding plans can include developing more compact and connected urban environments that integrate energy, water and waste systems more effectively.”

Another fundamental factor in tackling the energy-water-food stress nexus is collaboration among the private and public sectors. New ways of working together are needed to create opportunities from this global challenge, particularly those that marry the private sector’s technological and commercial expertise and the public sector’s expertise in policy-making and regulatory economics.

“At Shell, we recognize that the challenges of the energy-water-food stress nexus cannot be addressed alone. That’s why we partner with leading NGOs, academics and businesses outside our own industry to innovate and address future energy challenges today,” Bentham says.

Among a number of Shell’s initiatives in collaborating with various sectors of the society is the Powering Progress Together. First held in Rotterdam in the Netherlands in 2012, Powering Progress Together is a series of global events that enables dialogues to look at the “Future of Energy” in its broadest sense. Experts and talents from business, government and civil society gather to discuss the implications and solutions for the world’s vital resources that will come under greater pressure over the next decades. It aims to inspire innovative ideas and multi-sector partnerships as possible opportunities to address the challenges we face.

On February 6, the first Powering Progress Together in Asia will be held in Manila, with around 350 thought leaders and representatives from business, civil society and government across Asia Pacific in attendance. Together with Bentham, Royal Dutch Shell chief financial officer Simon Henry, Manila Observatory associate director for Research and head of Regional Climate Systems Program Gemma Narisma, Ateneo de Manila University president and climate scientist Fr. Jett Villarin, as well as landscape architect and urban planner Paulo Alcazaren, among others, will look into the challenges of the stress nexus and its implications in Asia, as well as opportunities for the Philippines.

Powering Progress Together is set against the backdrop of the centennial celebration of Shell Philippines, and the Shell Eco-marathon Asia 2014, one of the world’s most innovative student competitions that promote sustainable mobility.

Another addition to this year’s activities is the Energy Lab, which offers free access to interactive and educational games and exhibits for people of all ages.

“For the first time, the Shell Eco-Marathon Asia is bringing together partners and stakeholders around the future of energy, technology and mobility through the student competition, Powering Progress Together and the Energy Lab. It is our earnest hope that these initiatives spark reflections, conversations and, most importantly, concrete actions that can help tackle the world’s energy, water and food resource challenges now,” Bentham says.

The author has an Industrial Engineering degree from the University of the Philippines. He recently joined Shell’s global communications organization as campaign manager for Future of Energy.