Cliffhanger

Given the choices we have been making in Philippine elections, we’re in no position to criticize Americans or roll up our eyes in case they restore Donald Trump to the White House.

While all eyes are on the US elections, we should also wonder why far-right firebrands are enjoying strong support in other democracies particularly in Europe.

Even if Kamala Harris manages to edge out Trump, it’s still amazing that the US race has been so tight some quarters are talking of a dead heat. Will a tie-breaker be needed?

Trump campaigned on a strong anti-immigrant rhetoric, so it’s puzzling that, by most accounts, he enjoys significant support among Filipino-Americans.

Fil-Ams may identify themselves as fully assimilated Americans and no longer immigrants. Second and third generations have been born and bred in the US, like nearly all of my cousins, nieces and nephews who I barely know or have never met.

But don’t they have relatives, or Fil-Am friends with relatives who are immigrants? Shouldn’t they be identifying more with the first Asian-American to seek the US presidency?

Some pundits believe the strong pro-Trump support among Fil-Ams is partly because many belong to military families – a traditionally Republican sector. The pundits also say that the older generations of Fil-Ams in particular are conservative Catholics who are alienated by the Democrats’ positions on abortion, divorce and gender bending.

But what about Trump’s conviction on 34 counts of illegally trying to influence the 2016 presidential race by paying hush money to a porn actress who testified that they had sex? Aren’t the family-centric conservatives concerned about his multiple marriages?

Trump’s constituency probably hears only what it wants to hear. He told his supporters he was convicted in “a rigged, disgraceful trial” wherein he was persecuted, not prosecuted. This constituency doesn’t believe reports and opinions in mass media identified with woke Democrats.

If the US surveys are accurate this time (they all ended up spectacularly wrong, except for one poll, in the 2016 battle between Trump and Hillary Clinton), Harris doesn’t have that kind of solid hold even on the Asian-American vote, except perhaps within the Indian community.

Pundits have credited Trump’s strong showing to the information multiverse that allows him to twist the narrative to suit his needs, with his voters accessing chiefly information aligned with their views.

This was enhanced, let’s admit it, by his evading assassination by a hair’s breadth, and instantly milking it for everything it was worth by raising his fist in defiant triumph as blood trickled down his ultimate showman’s face.

In Asia, such a survivor would be seen as someone with the mandate of heaven. The guy is charmed; how can he lose?

The answer is that he already lost, in 2020 to Joe Biden. So, no, Donald Trump is not invincible.

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Still, the closeness of the US race provides lessons to those who worry about the future of democracy, including in the Philippines.

People vote with their most urgent concerns top of mind; it’s human nature. It’s not just in countries with a high incidence of poverty where economic issues (high prices, unemployment) and personal safety (which is related to criminality) are major concerns. Trump’s campaign spiels focus on both issues. So do several far-right politicians who have won elections in Europe.

Voters tend to pick candidates with a strong message addressing these concerns. Never mind if the message is nothing but OPM – oh promise me. As long as the candidate sounds convincing, promises instant gratification and knows how to utilize the information multiverse to get the message across, voters will buy it.

The past elections in our country have shown this over and over.

Rodrigo Duterte promised to eradicate the drug menace within six months of becoming president, by replicating what he accomplished (he claims) in his home city of Davao. Even people from impoverished communities, tired of drug-addled troublemakers in their neighborhoods, liked his promise of instant justice, instant retribution. The nation gave him a landslide victory.

Like Trump turning immigrants into bogeymen out to rape, kill and steal from law-abiding Americans, Duterte also portrayed drug pushers and addicts as evil personified that needed extermination. Or, in police parlance, neutralization.

Duterte’s explanation, that he was protecting law-abiding citizens and their rights from thieves, rapists and murderers, resonates in a country with weak law enforcement.

Bongbong Marcos, in a race that took place amid the continuing suffering from the economic tsunami unleashed by the COVID pandemic, promised a return of the “golden age” under his father. People born after that “golden age” chimera, with no memories of BBM’s mommie dearest Imeldific’s “edifice complex,” believed the promise of more hospitals! More cultural centers and palaces!

And most memorably, the promised rice at P21 a kilo! I know too many sensible people who swallowed this one completely. Today, with non-Kadiwa regular milled rice being retailed at P49 to over P55 a kilo and rice-fueled food inflation untamed, these people are among those who agree with Vice President Sara Duterte when she says that the nation deserves better. They don’t see the VP as the better alternative though.

There are lessons to be learned from the rise of the likes of Rodrigo Duterte, Donald Trump and the right-wing extremists of Europe. Rather than denigrate their supporters, we should understand this voter behavior, and address the factors driving it.

Otherwise, we should be ready for more Dutertes and Trumps winning high office.