Headed south

Pollsters have seen their results go widely off the mark, with some spectacular fails in recent years, notably Donald Trump’s landslide win and the Republican sweep in 2024, and the UK’s vote to leave the European Union in 2016.

In the Philippines, the surveys failed to see Akbayan topping the party-list contest and the strong showing of Bam Aquino, Rodante Marcoleta and Kiko Pangilinan in the 2025 Senate race.

These should be a balm for President Marcos, whose ratings seem to be on an unstoppable slide in his final two years in office.

Meanwhile, his nightmare from hell has maintained her ratings. Even if Vice President Sara Duterte’s numbers have been statistically flat since she declared her 2028 presidential bid last February, they have also not been significantly pulled down by the accusations hurled against her and formalized in the impeachment trial.

BBM can only pray that all the bad news on the economic front associated with his government won’t translate into support for his political arch nemesis.

The economy is still growing, although at its slowest since the 3.8 percent contraction in the first quarter of 2021, at the height of the COVID pandemic, so economists are holding off on saying that the country is in stagflation.

But people are feeling the impact of the higher-than-projected inflation – long seen as the weak point of Marcos 2.0.

The higher costs are nullifying whatever benefits are reaped by the millions of overseas Filipino workers and their families due to the strong dollar. Inflation is dampening consumption – bad news for our consumer-driven economy.

BBM should be glad that global crude prices are plummeting following the stunning Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections, which the world believes will end Trump’s military adventures in the Middle East.

On the other hand, this leaves BBM with one less external factor to blame for the country’s economic woes. Filipinos are comparing the impact of the Middle East war, strong dollar and other global headwinds on the Philippines’ neighbors, and are dismayed to see nearly everyone else coping better.

Christmas season remittances and spending traditionally contribute to better economic figures. But if these also turn out to be much tempered, BBM will again get the blame.

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Also, trust in BBM keeps slipping. This is a credibility problem that needs fixing ASAP if he wants to have endorsement power in 2028 and help prevent a Duterte comeback.

His anti-corruption shame campaign got a boost from the arrest and detention of his once favorite cousin Martin Romualdez. But this gain was diluted by that hospital drama, and now by Romualdez’s “mafia-like” VIP treatment (according to Ombudsman Jesus Crispin Remulla) at the Quezon City Jail. Remulla might want to subject that jail superintendent to a lifestyle check.

Any gain for BBM from his cousin’s arrest will be further eroded if the marites grapevine proves accurate and Romualdez is granted bail by the malleable Sandiganbayan.

This supposedly will happen shortly after VP Sara is convicted by the impeachment court and eliminated from the 2028 race. Poor cousin Martin, with his mental health so worrisome he deserves an aide accompanying him in jail 24/7, can then have a merry Christmas 2026 (and perhaps join Zaldy Co in seeking asylum in the favorite refuge of accused Pinoy looters, France).

Several key witnesses in the flood control corruption cases have been impressively clearing Romualdez of direct involvement. The latest, who testified yesterday before the Sandiganbayan, was Anti-Money Laundering Council financial investigator Jan Mark Busa.

This is testing the credibility of Ombudsman Remulla, who has said he wants his office to file cases in court only if there’s reasonable certainty of conviction.

At this point, it looks like there’s reasonable certainty of acquittal (again!) for Bong Revilla. That bail for the losing Senate bet of the Marcos administration’s Alyansa coalition also dented the credibility of BBM’s mahiya naman kayo campaign.

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A deeper dent, however, was caused by another presidential relative – no less than BBM’s son. Budget watchdogs noted that in the budget bill produced by the House of Representatives, Sandro Marcos’ congressional district in Ilocos Norte got the biggest increase in funding insertions for public works projects – from the P369 million in the executive’s proposed spending program to a whopping P4.74 billion.

Congressman Sandro has yet to comment on the insertions, which some of his colleagues now call “institutional amendments.” Apart from creative budgeting, you have to commend lawmakers for their grammatical acrobatics.

How a vote to convict and oust the VP might impact BBM’s ratings is anybody’s guess. If the VP is ousted, it’s unlikely that her supporters will transfer to the Marcos camp.

But BBM’s numbers for the final quarter of the year will likely be affected by the 2027 General Appropriations Act that he will sign into law. Next year’s national budget will be a major test of his commitment to reform and honest governance.

His looting congressional allies are proving to be incorrigible so I’m not too hopeful about dramatic changes in what is an election budget.

If BBM’s ratings go further south as a result, well, he can always say they’re just numbers in the air.