El Niño will test more than our plans

What is your household doing to prepare for the Super El Niño? Yes, a household can make some preparations, but it cannot protect itself completely on its own.

We can paint our roofs white and improve natural ventilation to reduce heat exposure. We can set up water storage units to prepare for water shortages and off-grid solar systems to manage short power interruptions. However, a dry spell that lasts for months and is expected to worsen into a drought requires coordinated community action and local and national planning.

I went to the nearest hardware store the other day and bought a large, empty plastic barrel for ?1,800. The store attendant told me that demand for these recycled barrels, which used to contain oil or cleaning chemicals, has increased, and that I was quite lucky there were still two left. However, while demand is high, I think most households cannot spare the money for such backup water systems.

Even if some households can afford these preparations, they cannot replenish watersheds and aquifers, stabilize the electricity supply, or prevent food shortages. That is why preparations by local and national governments are critical to helping us get through this extreme weather event.

The Cebu Provincial Government has already laid out its plan in anticipation of the dry spell, as reported by The FREEMAN on Thursday. The plan is doable and sensible. It prioritizes water, assigns responsibilities to specific offices, identifies vulnerable communities, and addresses risks involving agriculture, health, electricity, and fire. Most importantly, it comes with ?200 million in funding to put the plan into action, although the amount alone cannot tell us whether the response will be adequate.

My concern is what scientific data will guide all these plans. Do we have updated measurements of groundwater levels, the capacity of wells and reservoirs, and the daily water needs of households, farms, schools, and hospitals? Have these been used to estimate how much water will remain available as the dry spell continues and where the largest shortages are likely to occur?

Even the best plans can sound sensible in general terms and still prove inadequate. The number of tankers to deploy, the size and location of storage facilities, and the allocation of funds should follow from those estimates.

Otherwise, we may have a plan that says all the right things but falls short when the time comes. It is also important to understand the data so that we can determine what we can address at the local level and what requires action at the national level. This would allow us to seek assistance from the national government now or raise these concerns with it for coordinated action.

The current El Niño event is expected to be the strongest on record, with forecasters predicting that it will peak later this year and continue to have significant effects long after it ends. Our own weather bureau PAGASA has already warned that a very strong El Niño that could persist into the first half of 2027.

In a NewScientist.com article entitled “The world may never go back to how it was after this monster El Niño,” climate experts warn that extreme El Niño events, combined with global warming, could push the Earth’s climate system across thresholds that make recovery difficult. In other words, this current El Niño could trigger irreversible changes, leaving some parts of the world with a climate fundamentally different from the one our civilization has adapted to.

What concerns me most is how the world will react to the pressures an extreme El Niño could bring. In my Human Rights Law class, I always tell my students that it is easy to talk about human rights and extol their ideals during normal times. But those ideals will be tested if a super El Niño triggers multiple climate regime shifts with devastating consequences for ecosystems and economies around the world.

Economic depression and devastating disease outbreaks in the 20th century preceded global wars and atrocities. More recently, the September 11 attacks in the United States 25 years ago helped usher in anti-terrorism laws that have since been used against legitimate dissenters and civil society groups critical of governments.

That is why we must guard against our tendency to set aside our principles under extreme pressure, and remain committed to protecting people’s rights even when resources become scarce.