Assessing “INC” political influence

The three-day Iglesia Ni Cristo (INC) unannounced protest rally last week that started in EDSA ended in Liwasang Bonifacio on its third day. From a 20,000-plus crowd on the first day, less than 3,000 were left by dispersal time. The political impact of the rally in the light of the impending impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte and the graft charges related to the Department of Public Works and Highways flood-control scandal are still discussed and evaluated positively or negatively depending on the political leanings of the analysts. Whether it achieved the short-term goal and the long-term strategic political objective of INC is the question.

The INC is a 112-year-old religious sect founded by Felix Manalo who was succeeded by his son Erano Manalo, and then grandson Eduardo Manalo in 2009. It has over three million members in the Philippines including in some foreign countries, which is about 2.4% of the Philippine population. Based on the number of registered voters and a 90% voter turnout of INC voters in the last election, the INC votes would be 3% or 1.8 million of the voters in the 2025 elections. Due to the authoritarian leadership and organizational structure of INC, these bloc command votes are courted by Philippine politicians in all elections.

For the top elective positions for the president and the vice president, the INC votes would be significant if the contest is close and the margins are below five million votes, otherwise it has minimal impact. But in the senatorial and local elections where the margins in losing and winning are smaller, and especially in localities with large INC voters, it will have a bigger impact.

This voting phenomenon of the INC is tempered by the economic, social, political and moral issues prevailing in the country, particularly in the times leading to the elections. The INC voters are exposed and aware of the current and trending issues, as they are in the same demographic, economic and social environment as the rest of the Filipinos. The INC voters who are economically dependent on the INC are sure bloc voters, but at least 10% of them are independent voters guided by their own moral standards and inclinations.

The INC was a strong supporter of ex-president Ferdinand Marcos, but did not support martial law and some of them even joined the EDSA People Power revolution. The INC was officially for ex-president Estrada but was irrelevant in the ouster of Estrada in People Power II. The INC was also a minor factor in the election of Magsaysay, Garcia, Macapagal, Cory Aquino, Ramos, and Noynoy Aquino. It seems that the INC latched on to the winning candidates. They were clearly in the BBM-Duterte camp in the 2022 elections, but the overall margin was way beyond the voting numbers of the INC.

The INC political influence during and after elections is there in varying degrees of significance. Its strength and potential is what will be tested in the coming years, as the voting population, the economy, and the literacy, information technology, and political awareness of Filipinos grow and develop maturity. A broadening well-informed middle class erodes memberships in sects and cults. Education and social media promotes critical thinking, and a functioning democracy diminishes authoritarian leadership.

INC has made an ill-advised unstrategic move in their last protest rallies. The big rally earlier this year in the Luneta that amassed almost 800,000 people, and the smaller crowds in the EDSA and Liwasang Bonifacio, were uncertain half-disguised anti-BBM protests, that did not ignite support from more sectors, like the studentry, civil society, other religious sectors, and the self-funding middle class. These rallies even resurrected the moral duplicity of the INC with its position on the ABS-CBN closure, the Justice Corona impeachment trial, the expulsion of Eduardo Manalo’s mother and siblings from INC hierarchy, and the persecution/prosecution of INC members who left the INC community.

Religions and religious organizations need consistent moral/ethical ascendancy and credible leadership and leaders to survive and grow, especially if they meddle in politics.