Asia and America

The visit of President Trump to China a week or so ago has again renewed the question of what is Trump’s geopolitical strategy in Asia. Around 15 years ago, in 2011, US President Barack Obama committed to rebalancing US strategy and resources to focus on the Asia-Pacific region.

I remember that then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited several Asian countries, including the Philippines, and she said that the new US foreign policy would include “a pivot to Asia.” However, after 15 years, this new policy has not yet been realized.

The United States has been distracted by conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East and other parts of the world. In fact, some Asian leaders have stopped asking when the pivot will come. The question now often heard is how far the United States under Trump will pull back.

Trump is facing serious political divisions at home and distractions in other parts of the world. Unless the situation changes, it has become clear that serious engagement by the US across all of Asia is no longer realistic.

The pivot to Asia was based on the assumption that US power was capable of fostering strong regional economies, governments and militaries that could prevent China from becoming too aggressive in Asia.  However, today, the US is seen to have stopped seriously contesting Beijing’s economic and political influence across much of Asia and the Pacific, particularly on the Asian mainland.

Last year, I read that the national security strategy of the Trump administration had decided to narrow US regional security objectives protecting the First Island Chain. This refers to a string of archipelagos that runs through Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines which are all facing and confronting mainland China.

At present, this strategy might be able to contain Chinese expansion. However, the prospect of China trying to subjugate its neighbors cannot be overlooked. In fact, Beijing is increasingly overconfident. During Trump’s recent visit to Beijing, it was evident that Xi Jinping hinted that he believed that China was a rising power and that the US was a declining power. When the Obama administration introduced the policy of pivot to Asia, the basis for this rebalancing depended on three goals: security, prosperity and good governance. The logic was that promoting all these three would make the Asian countries stronger and better able to defend their sovereignty and therefore prevent China from overturning the regional order.

Over the last decade, only the goal of security received US attention and resources. This became more obvious under Trump.  A very good example was the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) which was a 12-country free trade agreement in the Asia-Pacific region which the Obama administration championed. The original objective, according to Obama, was to enshrine “… an open international economic system where rules are clear and every nation plays by them.”  However, the US Senate refused to ratify the TPP even during Obama’s term.

Trump has totally withdrawn any interest in the TPP and, in fact, has begun imposing tariffs on China and other Asian countries.

The other Obama goal was good governance. The main characteristic of this goal was the promotion of democracy, anti-corruption and human rights. The Obama and Biden administrations made the promotion of democracy, anti-corruption and human rights central to their policies. The Trump administration, on the other hand, has been quiet about human rights and democracy. This has been of comfort to the authoritarian leaders in the region.

US anti-corruption efforts have also slowed down under the Trump administration. One of the results has been the decline of favorable attitudes towards the US even in countries like Australia, Japan and South Korea.

It seems that military deterrence is all that remains of US strategy in Asia. The United States is still regularly sending ships and aircraft just off the coast of China in an effort to prevent China from coercing US allies and exerting control over disputed territories, waters and airspace. It has also continued joint military exercises with countries like the Philippines, Japan and Australia. However, this US intervention has not prevented China from restarting its land reclamation campaign in the South China Sea.

China has also stepped up military pressure on Taiwan, raising the risk of a crisis in the Taiwan Strait.

Many of the countries in Asia are already strengthening their economic and military ties with China. The present allies of the United States are insecure about the lack of permanence of America’s strategy in Asia under Trump. The Biden administration encouraged allies and partners to work more closely together, whereas the Trump administration has favored a bilateral approach because it maximizes US leverage.

It seems that the only hope for its Asian allies is a new administration that will revisit its original strategy of a pivot to Asia. I also sincerely hope that any new administration will recall the three pillars of the Obama administration policy, namely security, prosperity and good governance.