Sara, see you at the Senate!

This coming Monday, all eyes will be on the House of Representatives as its members gather to vote on whether or not to impeach Vice President Sara Duterte. This comes after the House committee on justice found probable cause in the impeachment complaints filed against her, voting unanimously to endorse the charges to the plenary.

Sara’s impeachment is already a foregone conclusion; the only question now is how many lawmakers will vote for it. Estimates range from 190 to as many as 230 votes, certainly far more than the 105 votes required to impeach her.

This is monumental for many reasons. Sara will go down in Philippine history as the highest-ranking official impeached by Congress twice in succession. Never mind that her first impeachment was declared void by the Supreme Court in a highly controversial ruling that many viewed as protecting Sara. The fact remains. Congress voted to impeach her in 2025, and Congress is preparing to impeach her again on Monday. The first may be dismissed as politicking. The second is confirmation of the seriousness, weight and credibility of the charges against her.

Her impeachment will signal that many lawmakers are no longer afraid of threats of political retribution from the Dutertes in 2028. For the longest time, the prevailing wisdom was that impeaching Sara so close to the presidential election would be nearly impossible and even political suicide. Many lawmakers were expected to think twice before crossing a politician who had long been perceived, and crowned early by many, as the country’s next president. But these lawmakers will do the opposite, not because they suddenly woke up one morning and were seized by a burning devotion to accountability, but I sense that many were emboldened by recent surveys showing Sara’s numbers slipping while alternative candidates gain momentum.

As a result, the Dutertes are further diminished. The image of Sara as invincible and unstoppable begins to crack. Replacing it is a growing perception of a Vice President who may very well be guilty of the charges against her, not only because she has continuously refused to participate in the process, but also because her camp has failed to present compelling arguments to counter the accusations thrown against her. Up to now, they still have no convincing answer regarding the P 6.7 billion worth of bank transactions flagged by the Anti-Money Laundering Council (AMLC). Instead, they have chosen to raise hell over the public disclosure of the bank records instead of immediately denying outright the multibillion-peso transactions. By the time they categorically denied the transactions, it was too late. Her evasion became an admission.

Meanwhile, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. stands to emerge stronger from all this. Many expected him to become a lame-duck president as we come closer to the 2028 elections. Instead, his supermajority in Congress is preparing to impeach his former dynastic ally once more. Marcos Jr. will naturally keep his distance from the proceedings, but everyone understands how, in Philippine politics, nothing of this magnitude moves without, at the very least, the silent approval of the sitting president.

In fact, it was Marcos Jr.’s mixed messaging during Sara’s first impeachment proceedings that slowed the process and allowed the Dutertes time to mount legal and political obstacles. This time, however, the President’s silence is being interpreted differently, not as hesitation, but as consent.

Now, if all eyes are on Congress on Monday, expectations will quickly shift to the Senate once the articles of impeachment are transmitted to its jurisdiction. Under Senate President Tito Sotto, who has said that the chamber will proceed “forthwith” with the impeachment process, the Senate can no longer behave the way it did under the short-lived yet spectacularly chaotic leadership of Senator Chiz Escudero. This is now a defining moment for the Senate as an institution.

Not surprisingly, some members of the Duterte-aligned Senate minority have already declared their intention to “oppose” the impeachment proceedings once they reach the Senate. The loudest is Senator Robin Padilla. Guided by his boundless knowledge and wisdom, Robin argued that the minority must oppose the impeachment simply because that is supposedly the role of the minority; to automatically oppose everything, the way toddlers reject vegetables. Following Robin’s logic, if the Senate majority says the sky is blue, the minority’s duty is to file a resolution insisting it is green.

If only Robin maximized the use of his office internet, he might learn that impeachment is not a matter of personal preference. It is a constitutional duty imposed upon senators. Once the articles of impeachment are transmitted to the Senate, the institution has no choice but to convene itself as an impeachment court. The Senate’s task is straightforward: hear the case, examine the evidence and either convict or acquit Sara.

Of course, Robin may be hoping for something similar to their successful obstruction of the first impeachment proceedings against the Vice President. But the context today is entirely different. The Senate is now under new leadership, and the impeachment process is governed by revised rules crafted by the Supreme Court, ironically, based on Sara’s legal challenge of the proceedings. In other words, the pro-Duterte Senate minority no longer has any effective legal hurdles left to stop the process.

The trajectory of events is now becoming difficult to reverse. Congress is poised to impeach the Vice President once again, and the Senate will convene as an impeachment court. Sara’s strategy of delay, evasion and procedural sabotage is rapidly running out of road.

The writing on the wall is now unmistakable; the people have heard the excuses, watched the drama and waited long enough. The numbers have shifted, and so has the public mood. The resounding message is loud clear: “Sara, see you at the Senate.”