Why Sara Duterte is not a shoo-in for 2028

Based on Philippine political history, Sara Duterte will likely survive her impeachment case. The Senate all but guarantees it. Conviction requires 16 out of 24 votes – a threshold nearly insurmountable. Philippine senators, most of whom choose political survival over all else, rarely defy their political patron. Duterte needs nine votes to block an impeachment and she has more than enough to secure that.

But here’s the irony. Surviving the impeachment is not victory. If anything, an acquittal may prove pyrrhic or one that comes at an enormous cost.

History has taught us important lessons. In the impeachment trial of Joseph Estrada, public outrage intensified not after the conviction, but during the proceedings themselves. The spectacle of testimony, financial revaluations and political maneuvering were enough to trigger Estrada’s collapse. Likewise, the impeachment of Renato Corona demonstrated how sustained public exposure – even before a verdict – can decisively shape public opinion. Trials do not merely determine guilt – they define narratives. And narrative is where Duterte is most vulnerable.

We’ve already seen the narrative flip last week. Bank records showing P6.77 billion passing through the accounts linked to Sara Duterte and Manases Carpio were enough to turn off millions of Filipinos. It revealed true colors, shook public confidence and reinforced festering allegations of corruption.

Moreover, Duterte’s approval ratings, once buoyed by the 2022 landslide, have not held up. From highs approaching 70 percent in 2023-2024, they have settled into the low-50s range. While still high, it is a diminishing. Historical data show that once approval  ratings fall below the mid-50s, they rarely recover without a major reset. The presidency is never won from a position of decline.

This is precisely what makes the 2028 presidential race competitive rather than decisive.

Duterte benefits from what analysts call a “hard floor,” or a stable base of supporters. In her case, that floor sits around 25-35 percent, anchored by Mindanao. Voters there remain deeply invested in the Duterte brand. This base is unlikely to erode, even amid scandals.

But will 25-35 percent be enough?

Probably not. The electoral math has changed. The Philippines is no longer driven by personalities alone. Issues now matter. Corruption is currently the second biggest concern of the electorate, only after cost of living. A decade of corrupt, incompetent and weak leaders have raised demands for reform. This is especially true among the youth, middle class and voters in Luzon and the Visayas. They comprise the decisive blocs.

That shift was evident in the 2025 elections where reformist candidates like Bam Aquino, Kiko Pangilinan, Leila de Lima and Chel Diokno outperformed expectations. The surge in youth turnout – long underestimated by surveys – proved they can shape outcomes. In a two-way presidential race, this shift becomes determinative.

So who will be her probable opponent? Judging from surveys and those who stand for good governance, it could be Mayor Leni Robredo (‘no’ is not final  until she endorses an alternative), Senators Bam Aquino and Risa Hontiveros.

On performance track record, Duterte is at a clear disadvantage. While her opponents can point to strong performance in governance and reform, Duterte has little to show from her stint at DepEd and as Vice President.

And then there is foreign interference or the suspicion thereof. Duterte benefits from a well-funded and highly coordinated social media network with ties to Beijing. Although an advantage on the surface, the China connection will prove to be a liability, given the electorate’s anger towards China’s illegal acts in the West Philippine Sea.

And crucially, the machinery of the Marcos government will not align with Duterte, given the existential threat the Marcoses face should Duterte win the presidency. No doubt, government will deploy its considerable resources – organizational, financial and logistical – in favor of Sara’s opponent.

We should also consider historical precedents. Vice presidents who declare their presidential ambitions early rarely win. Neither do early frontrunners. Consider the cases of Doy Laurel, Jejomar Binay and Manny Villar. Duterte’s early declaration, rather than pre-empting challengers, has effectively given them a longer runway to challenge her.

In terms of positioning, we can expect a striking contrast between Duterte and the good governance candidate. While Duterte will have no choice but to maintain a defensive stance and play the victim, her opponent will focus on the future and what could be – transparency, accountability and competent leadership. With corruption as a top voter concern, this contrast will shape the election outcome.

Regional dynamics play a role too. Duterte will dominate Mindanao, likely securing 75+ percent of the vote. But Mindanao accounts for only a quarter of the national electorate. To win nationally, she must dominate elsewhere. In Luzon – home to over half of all voters – is where the good governance candidate will secure the majority, particularly in urban centers and among younger voters. The Visayas, historically fluid, is likely to tilt toward reform if corruption remains a salient issue.

As of today, a plausible distribution looks like this: Duterte wins Mindanao overwhelmingly but loses Luzon and splits the Visayas. In a two-way race, that arithmetic favors her opponent.

The path to a decisive victory for the good governance candidate is clear. Consolidate the anti-corruption vote. Maximize youth turnout. Dominate Luzon by double digits. Remain competitive in the Visayas and critically, frame the election not as a referendum of personalities, but as a choice between governance models.

All these are why Sara Duterte is not a shoo-in for the presidency. Yes, she is formidable with a durable base – but she is also a polarizing figure, tainted by allegations of corruption and plagued by declining approval ratings. Her China bias is also a disadvantage. All these amid the electorate’s increasingly intolerance for corruption, incompetence and treachery could prove to be her Achilles heel.

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E-mail: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @aj_masigan