Crescent

Force certainly shapes history. But so do unintended consequences.

Nearly two months ago, the US embarked on a brutal and unprovoked war on Iran. The effort had no strategy, no clear goals and no exit plan. This gave all the other players – Iran included – all the room they need to reinvent, to redesign and to reimagine.

All these they did with aplomb.

Trump lurched into this war much like a drunk person tries to cross a narrow and unsteady gangplank. The whole exercise is fraught from the start. The possibility of failure is always very high.

Since Feb. 28, what progressed was something quivering in that sliver of space between tragedy and comedy. Trump imagined that, with all the firepower at his disposal, he would dictate the outcomes. What the world found was an incompetent clown improvising at every step of the way.

This has been a most pathetic show. The leader of the most powerful nation on earth was substituting his fantasy for the reality on the ground. He lied at every turn. And all the institutions of a democratic state failed to protect the guardrails.

The turning point of what has rapidly descended into a parody will have to be that moment a desperate Trump reportedly demanded nuclear codes from his country’s highest ranking military officer. The chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff refused. Then he left the White House with his head bowed – perhaps reflecting on the insanity that had engulfed his nation.

For weeks, Trump engaged the Iranians in what has been charitably described as “coercive diplomacy.” He used unimaginable threats to force the Iranians to sign what amounts to articles of surrender.

But by merely surviving the murderous bombing campaign mounted by the US and Israel, Iran emerged from being a heavily sanctioned regional power into the now acknowledged fourth most important military power of the world. Here is a nation forcibly cut off from the global mainstream by US policy now emerging, even if grudgingly, as a power to be respected. No nation, especially in the volatile Middle East, can ignore the voice of Tehran.

As a consequence, we now see the neighboring regional powers scrambling to quickly grow their influence and diplomatic footprint.

Pakistan, a nuclear power, has been trying to assume the role of peace broker to end a war that is inflicting so much pain on the rest of the world. But, being in strategic alliance with Saudi Arabia, it has difficulty presenting itself as a honest broker. Over the past few weeks, Pakistani troops and weapons have flowed into Saudi Arabia in compliance with its mutual defense treaty.

Turkey is an aspiring regional power. It has one of the strongest military forces among NATO member-countries. It has deployed forces as far west as Libya and as far south as Sudan and Somalia. In the face of softening anti-Israeli tone of other Sunni Muslim countries such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain, Turkey has pushed its diplomatic weight to shore up a Sunni axis. Over the past few weeks, Ankara has sharpened its anti-Israel stance and even volunteered to war against the Jewish state itself.

Both Pakistan and Turkey understand that unless they play up their influence in a turbulent region, the battle-shocked Islamic countries could begin gravitating around Iran.

The influence of the corrupt quasi-monarchies that rule the countries of the Persian Gulf opens the door to radical reforms in how these countries are governed eventually. Next to the US and Israel, the sheiks who bribed to keep their autocratic control are the biggest, unintended, losers in this war.

Israel managed to convince the impressionistic Trump that forcing regime change in Iran would be a walk in the park. Israeli jets mounted a murderous assassination campaign targeting Iran’s leaders. The regime in Tehran endured the losses and remained standing despite it all.

Which is not to say regime change did not happen. Nearly two months since the war began, power in Iran has clearly shifted from the clerical hierarchy to the leadership of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). As power slips from the politicians and religious leaders to the hands of the more militant IRGC, Iran’s foreign policy hardens.

On the one hand, the IRGC commanders may be more “hardline” – whatever this means in the jargon of American political science. On the other hand, the emerging leadership is freer from the dictates of the doctrinal mullahs and therefore possibly more pragmatic.

The strategic alliance between Iran, Russia and China was strengthened by this war. The two traditional powers, although they do not advertise this, served as the indestructible rear base for Iranian military power. They could keep the Iranians well supplied for a very long time.

Russia benefits from the higher oil price regime the war caused. Moscow desperately needed the hard currency, given the costs of its insane war against Ukraine. With sanctions on the trade of Russian oil suspended, Moscow reaps the profits. Inversely, Ukraine is a loser in the war against Iran.

China so characteristically maintains an inscrutable foreign policy face even as it stepped up its arms deliveries to Iran the past weeks. Beijing imports much of its oil from Iran. Its Belt and Road initiative invests much in enlivening the economies of Central Asia.

All the power shifts were unintended by those who started this war.