Future proofing the country for a harsher world

The US-Israel conflict with Iran has accelerated the warnings laid out by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in Davos. For those who missed it, let me enumerate them again:

First, the rules-based global order is fading fast. Second, great powers will increasingly weaponize trade, finance, supply chains and technology. Third, middle powers negotiating alone will do so from a position of weakness. Thus, countries must build strategic alliances to strengthen their positions. Fourth, nations must develop strategic autonomy in energy, food, defense and basic manufacturing to survive. And fifth, middle powers must act together – because “if you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu.”

Carney’s warnings should serve as a wake up call for President Bongbong Marcos. Only preparedness and strategic autonomy will insulate us from a harsher, less forgiving and more transactional world that is upon us.

The good thing is that the Philippines begins with real strengths. We are young. We are English-speaking. We sit on one of the world’s most strategic maritime crossroads. We have a large domestic market. We have an established electronics base, a strong services sector and a diaspora that still gives us global reach. From 2010 to 2022, Philippine GDP growth averaged 5.2 percent, placing the country among the stronger middle-income performers, according to the World Bank. For this, we have the reforms of the Aquino administration to thank.

But our weaknesses are just as real. The economy has weakened under Marcos’ watch, saddled by a flagging manufacturing sector and failing agriculture. How can we achieve strategic autonomy when power costs are inordinately high, logistics are inefficient, bureaucracy is stifling and corruption pervades in government programs? Without fixing these, strategic autonomy is impossible.

Yet, President Marcos shows little urgency. Reforms are slow, if not negligible. There has been no visible or substantive progress towards food or energy autonomy.

How better governed countries are preparing

India is leveraging its massive domestic market to attract investments in manufacturing. It is looking to be an electronics powerhouse that exports $500 billion worth of products by 2030. It is well on its way. This is how a country turns market size into strategic leverage.

Militarily, India is no longer just importing arms – it is becoming a defense producer and exporter. Indian defense exports was at $4.6 billion last year, a 62.66 percent increase over 2024.

Vietnam is positioning to be a high-value manufacturing and technology hub. It aims to sustain six to seven percent GDP growth on the back of robust exports and massive FDI intakes.

Geopolitically, Vietnam is steadily elevating ties with major and middle powers in pursuit of its multipolar hedging strategy.

Indonesia is asserting strategic autonomy through resource nationalism. By restricting raw mineral exports and forcing domestic processing, Jakarta captures more value-added domestically. It welcomes foreign capital – but on its terms – ensuring control over critical resources and supply chains.

Militarily, Indonesia is accelerating defense spending to 1-1.5 percent of GDP and diversifying suppliers rather than relying on just the US.

What the Philippines must do to future proof

To its credit, the Philippines is not doing nothing. It is modernizing its military and building alliances. The Department of National Defense is in the midst of a $35-billion military modernization program and is expanding its defense ties with Japan, Australia, South Korea and others.

But to truly future-proof the country, Marcos must get serious about reforms to strengthen both the economy and our geopolitical position. Insiders have confirmed that LEDAC has identified the right measures to do so. The problem is execution – Marcos does not drive reforms with resolve, often leaving it all to his Cabinet.

And the Cabinet does not push hard either. Reforms stall when they become difficult or face resistance from political donors and vested interests. There is little fear of consequences since the President does not push hard anyway. The sense of urgency and organizational accountabilities are absent. This is largely why this government is drifting.

It’s time Marcos acts as real Chief Executive. There is a lot to do to future-proof the country.

In the economy, he must revive manufacturing by addressing the perennial bottlenecks. That includes cheaper power, faster permits, modern ports, bonded logistics, industrial rail and road connectivity and special economic zones. More importantly, it means choosing a few sectors where the Philippines can still compete: electronics back-end work, medical devices, ship repair, agribusiness processing, defense-adjacent manufacturing and higher-value digital exports.

Second, he must treat food and energy security as national security issues, not as popularity talking points. A country that cannot feed itself or keep the lights on at competitive rates is not sovereign in any meaningful sense. Agriculture needs consolidation, mechanization, storage, cold chain, irrigation and logistics. Energy policy must move from emergency patchwork to long-term resilience. This includes development of renewables, storage capacity, grid modernization, domestic gas where viable and strategic fuel reserves.

Third, in foreign policy, he must prepare the country for an era where America remains important but unreliable. Dependence must diminish in favor of self-reliance.

The Philippines must deepen economic and strategic partnerships not only with established middle powers but also with emerging powers like Mexico and   Brazil.

Fourth, Marcos must get serious with corruption and stop gaslighting us all with false promises of arrests. Corruption is what makes government weak, inefficient and ineffectual. It is the great obstacle to our progress. No amount of geopolitical hedging will matter if the state itself is hollowed out by rent-seeking politicians. So they need to be punished to serve as an example. Only then can an ethics revolution begin.

The Philippines still has time to future-proof itself. But time is not infinite. Marcos must start leading with urgency, discipline and clarity.

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E-mail: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @aj_masigan