The rise of political alternatives

The electoral terrain ahead of the 2028 election is becoming more competitive. This seems to be the case if we are to believe the results of recent surveys by some of the country’s leading polling firms.

While it is still early to say that there is indeed a definitive trend, there are signs that we may be witnessing an early shift from a narrative of “dominance and invincibility” as projected by Vice President Sara Duterte to a “competitive electoral race.”

This is reinforced by the recent statements made by Dr. Ranjit Rye, head of the Octa survey firm, on their upcoming report on the public’s voting preference in the 2028 elections. He said that while Sara continues to lead the survey, her numbers, based on their survey cycle, have dropped for the first time. Meanwhile, Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo has surged from nine percent in their previous survey to 22 percent, trimming down Sara’s lead to just nine points.

Similar to this is WR Numero’s last report. Sara continued to lead the preference race, but her support hasn’t expanded, with her closest competitors, Robredo and Sen. Raffy Tulfo, gaining. This is notable as the two have repeatedly said that they have no plans to contest the 2028 presidential election.

Equally revealing is Pulse Asia’s year-on-year (March 2025-March 2026) report on the public trust rating of the country’s top two government leaders. In March 2026, while Duterte led President Bongbong Marcos Jr. with a 54 percent trust rating compared to the latter’s 35 percent, her numbers fell from 61 percent in March 2025, while the President’s numbers improved from 20 percent in March 2025. Meanwhile, Marcos Jr.’s distrust rating declined from 54 percent to 44 percent; in contrast, people who distrust Sara increased significantly from 16 percent to 26 percent. The issue of corruption is said to be the main driver of growing public distrust.

As I have mentioned many times before, the Vice President’s numbers are no longer just “holding steady,” they’re flattening and even beginning to dip.

This alone, however, is not unusual, especially since the election is still far away. But what is crucial is what’s happening around Sara. The terrain is becoming dynamic and competitive.

Since her rise to national politics, Sara has enjoyed a “preference lock.” She benefited greatly from the political capital and residual goodwill she inherited from her father, and the absence of a consolidated and viable alternative. As such, many voters, outside of the Vice President’s hardcore base, weren’t actively choosing; they were defaulting. But then again, default support is fragile. It is only good until a credible choice emerges.

The surveys could indicate that voters may be beginning to reevaluate their choices. This is important. In our electoral experience, early leads often reflect name recall and machinery, while gradual and even sudden shifts reflect changing public sentiment. A plateauing of numbers can signal that a candidate has already captured most of their “easy” support and is now struggling to expand beyond it.

This places Duterte in a strategic dilemma. Her political brand is built on the story of inevitability and continuity. But inevitability only persuades when it is uncontested. Her rivals, by contrast, benefit from momentum. They are not defending a lead; they are building one. Every gain reinforces the perception of viability. And in politics, perception can harden into reality faster than the data itself.

If this trajectory becomes definite, the 2028 election ceases to be a referendum on Duterte continuity. It becomes a contest about alternatives, political direction, contrast and choices.

It is therefore not surprising that Duterte’s camp has adopted a two-pronged strategy comprised of a “charm offensive” to soften and humanize her image, alongside a determined effort to evade the impeachment process. So far, neither appears to be working for Sara.

Sara’s appearances at graduation ceremonies and her videos greeting people on almost every public holiday appear inauthentic and lacking in empathy. On the other hand, her camp’s insistence to evade and derail the impeachment process, especially with the serious allegations made by her alleged bagman, Ramil Madriaga, and the anticipated disclosure of her bank accounts and SALNs, only adds to the public distrust. Instead of regaining lost ground, she seems to be losing more.

If Sara’s numbers continue to flatten and her rivals gain ground, the steady rise of political alternatives becomes a real possibility. This could also lead to the formation of a new set of voters that could alter what is considered a forgone conclusion, comprised of people who were previously disengaged, undecided or even resigned to the “inevitable.”

This dynamic can be described as a “reverse bandwagon effect.” Instead of gravitating toward the perceived frontrunner, voters begin shifting toward “underdog candidates” who appear to be catching up.

Underdog stories have a strong appeal. From David versus Goliath, to the 300 Spartans at Thermopylae, to Ginebra’s “never say die” spirit. Yes, people love winners, but they are also drawn to the idea of unexpected but deserving victors, those who weren’t always the sure bet or the most favored, but managed to prevail over the strong when it counted most.

If this becomes a definitive trend, Sara’s narrative risks shifting from “inevitability” to “vulnerability,” from “she will surely win” to the very real possibility that “she can be defeated.”

As they say, if it bleeds, it can be brought down.