The winners and losers of the Iran war

If the Iran war were to end today, who would be the winners and losers?

Wars are rarely a cut-and-dry affair with absolute winners and losers. Wars are messy, with outcomes that ripple far beyond the battlefield. In this Iran war, every major actor has emerged with a mix of gains and setbacks, some more pronounced than others.

The GCC. For decades, Iran has been the principal rival of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – namely Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman. As a Shia power, Iran has challenged this predominantly Sunni bloc across military, ideological and historical fronts. In this context, the weakening of Iran’s military infrastructure and leadership is a strategic gain for the GCC. This reduces (at least temporarily) the threat posed by its persistent adversary.

But these gains come at a price. The GCC sits directly in the crossfire. Iranian retaliatory strikes on oil and gas facilities have disrupted the GCC’s revenue streams and undermined investor confidence in the region. The consequences of these will be felt for years.

And to the chagrin of the GCC, the war has shattered the long-held belief that the presence of US military bases guarantees security. Increasingly, the opposite appears true, that hosting American military assets invites risk rather than deters it.

Israel. Israel has secured significant tactical and strategic gains. Its arch enemy’s military capabilities have been substantially damaged and its nuclear program – long seen as an existential threat – has been derailed. Israel has also leveraged the broader conflict to expand its footprint in Lebanon, effectively gaining control over its southern territories.

And for the Zionist, this war brings them one step closer toward consolidating what they view as their promised land.

Yet Israel has paid a steep price too. Iran’s regime has not only survived but appears to have hardened with its new Supreme Leader. This ensures that hostilities will persist, perhaps in more unpredictable ways. Domestically, Israel has also suffered severe infrastructure damage, not to mention death and injury of its citizens. Internationally, Tel Aviv is increasingly seen as a destabilizing force – and, by many, as a nation committing grave humanitarian violations. Israel now faces growing anti-Semitism and diplomatic isolation.

Iran. Iran’s position is perhaps the most complex. On the surface, Iran has suffered deeply – loss of life, widespread displacement, destruction of infrastructure and the depletion of military resources. Its nuclear ambitions have been significantly set back too.

And yet, Iran has achieved its primary objective – survival. From the outset, Tehran’s strategy was never to defeat the United States and Israel in combat. Rather, Iran sought to endure, to impose costs and to reshape the battlefield to its favor. By blocking the Strait of Hormuz and by expanding the conflict across the region, Iran demonstrated the ability to defeat its powerful enemies via strategic leverage. Iran exposed the limits of brute force and underscored the importance of asymmetric strategy. Tehran has shown the world that survival against a superpower is in itself a form of victory.

The United States. Predictably, the US reaffirmed its position as the world’s preeminent military power. From a military standpoint, Washington has once again demonstrated its superiority.

But beyond the battlefield, the picture is far less flattering. President Donald Trump has alienated allies and partners by attacking Iran unilaterally. Washington’s conduct has raised serious questions about America’s commitment to a rules-based international order. By initiating one war after another, even without imminent threat, the US has lost its moral authority to question Russia’s attack on Ukraine or China’s planned invasion of Taiwan.

The US is quickly depleting significant portions of its military stockpiles, raising concerns about its long-term war readiness. Alongside this drawdown is a rapid burn rate of financial resources. This comes at a time when America’s debt is becoming increasingly unmanageable.

Strategically, President Trump has mishandled the war from the outset. He ordered strikes on Iran while talks were still ongoing – putting to question  America’s trustworthiness. He declared victory within days, only to start looking for the nearest exit ramp soon after. He issued ultimatums to Iran, only to back out from them just as quickly.

Adding to the confusion is his messaging. To say it has been inconsistent and misleading is an understatement. His statements resemble a toxic brew of hubris, deep confusion and quiet desperation.

Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on GCC nations loom large – both unanticipated and unprepared for by President Trump. As a result, any claim of American victory without reopening the strait will remain incomplete. Yet achieving that would likely require a ground invasion – an option burdened with heavy political and human costs. In many ways, the US now finds itself cornered, having started a conflict it may not win. The travesty is that it is all self-inflicted.

And of course, the blowback on America’s reputation cannot be ignored. It unilaterally started a war that caused widespread death, damage and displacement across the globe. All this is fueling a tide of anti-American sentiment.

Russia. And then there is Vladimir Putin, the unexpected beneficiary of this ordeal.

While others bleed resources and grapple with uncertainty, Russia is gaining immensely. Skyrocketing oil prices have translated into windfall profits – estimated at nearly $800 million a month. Moreover, the diversion of Western attention has eased pressure on Russia’s campaign in the Ukraine. With arms manufacturers overwhelmed by demand, the flow of new weapons to Kyiv has slowed. For Moscow, the Iran war is not just a distraction – it is heaven sent.

So, taking all things to account, if the war were to end today, the big winner would be Russia. The big loser would be  the US. Everyone else falls somewhere in between.

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E-mail: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @aj_masigan