No end in sight: Why Asean must act now

There is, at this point, no clear end in sight to the war involving Iran.

What began as a regional confrontation has evolved into a broader, more dangerous conflict, with ripple effects now felt across the global economy. Oil prices have surged unpredictably, shipping routes face heightened risks and supply chains – already strained from previous disruptions – are once again under pressure.

For many countries, this is a geopolitical crisis. For ASEAN, it is something far more immediate: an economic test of resilience.

Southeast Asia remains heavily dependent on energy imports, particularly from the Middle East. As tensions escalate, even the mere threat of supply disruption is enough to drive up costs, weaken currencies and increase inflationary pressures. Across the region, governments are already grappling with rising fuel prices, higher food costs and growing concern among ordinary citizens.

This is the kind of external shock that ASEAN economies are particularly vulnerable to – not because of weakness, but because of deep integration into global trade and energy systems.

Yet in every crisis, there is also opportunity. The ASEAN Leaders’ Summit in May now takes on a heightened level of importance. Originally envisioned as a routine gathering to advance regional cooperation, it has instead become a critical platform for collective action at a time of uncertainty.

The decision to proceed with the summit – albeit in a more focused format – is both practical and symbolic, underscoring a fundamental truth: when external pressures mount, ASEAN must come together, not drift apart.

But unity alone is not enough. The summit must move beyond carefully worded statements and diplomatic language. It must deliver concrete, coordinated measures that directly address economic challenges confronting the region.

Topping the list is energy security. ASEAN member-states must explore mechanisms for greater coordination – whether through shared strategic reserves, synchronized policy responses or even joint procurement initiatives where feasible. While such measures may not eliminate volatility, they can mitigate its impact and send a strong signal of regional cohesion.

Equally important is food security. Rising energy costs inevitably translate into higher agricultural and transportation expenses, placing pressure on food prices. For many countries in the region, this is not merely an economic issue but a social one. ASEAN must therefore ensure that supply chains remain open, efficient and protected from unnecessary disruptions.

Financial coordination is another area that requires immediate action. Currency pressures and inflation are already emerging concerns. Greater dialogue among finance ministers and central banks – possibly leading to coordinated responses – can help stabilize markets and reassure investors.

Then there is the human dimension. Millions of Southeast Asians live and work abroad, including in regions affected by conflict. Their welfare must remain a priority. ASEAN cooperation in ensuring their safety and facilitating assistance when needed is both a moral obligation and a practical necessity.

These are not long-term aspirations. They are immediate imperatives. Which brings us to the role of the Philippines – and of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

As ASEAN chair this year, the Philippines is uniquely positioned to guide the regional response. Chairmanship in ASEAN has often been described as facilitative rather than directive. But in moments such as this, leadership takes on a deeper meaning. It becomes about setting the tone, shaping the agenda and building consensus where it matters most.

President Marcos Jr. can steer discussions toward actionable outcomes – ensuring that the summit does not end with declarations alone, but with a shared commitment to concrete steps.

Understanding the stakes, the Philippines navigates both domestic and economic pressures in an increasingly complex global environment – allowing it to act both as a voice of pragmatism and a bridge among differing national priorities.

Beyond the immediate crisis, however, ASEAN must also begin to think more strategically. The lesson from the current situation is clear: external shocks are no longer rare events. They are becoming part of a new global reality – driven by geopolitical tensions, economic fragmentation and shifting power dynamics.

Given this, resilience cannot be an afterthought. It must be built deliberately and collectively by accelerating efforts toward energy diversification, strengthening intra-ASEAN trade and investing in systems that can absorb and adapt to sudden disruptions. It also means deepening cooperation in areas such as digital connectivity, infrastructure and financial integration.

The goal is not to insulate ASEAN from the world – that would be neither possible nor desirable. Rather, it is to ensure that when the world becomes more uncertain, ASEAN remains steady.

History shows that the strength of ASEAN lies in its ability to find common ground amid diversity. That strength will be tested once again.

The Iran conflict may be geographically distant, but its consequences are already felt across our region. The question is not whether ASEAN will be affected, but how ASEAN will respond. The summit in May must therefore be more than a meeting of leaders. It must be a moment of collective resolve.

For the Philippines, with our deep Christian faith most especially at this time – it is a moment of leadership – not in grand declarations, but in the ability to bring nations together toward a common purpose.

As President Marcos Jr. himself has often emphasized, leadership is ultimately about responsibility – responsibility not only to one’s own people, but to the broader community of nations.

And in a time of uncertainty, that responsibility becomes even more profound. For ASEAN, the path forward will not be easy, but it is clear: we must act together – decisively, and with purpose.

Because in the end, as President Marcos Jr. said, “The true strength of our region lies not in what we face alone, but in what we are able to achieve together.”

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