Emergency measures: Bracing for the oil crisis

As tensions rise in key oil-producing regions, significant global supply disruption is occurring with Brent crude showing volatility since the start of the conflict. History shows that even the perception of instability can already drive prices sharply upward.

For countries like the Philippines which imports a vast majority of their fuel requirements, the implications are profound and far reaching. Oil is not just about transport or electricity – it directly affects food prices, industrial output and the daily cost of living for millions of Filipinos.

The situation today must not be treated as a routine fluctuation, but as a potential crisis requiring decisive and coordinated action. Global economists are closely tracking developments across the Middle East and other critical supply corridors, fully aware that even a limited disruption – whether from conflict, shipping constraints or geopolitical miscalculation – could trigger a broader economic shock.

But even as major powers move to stabilize global markets, countries like ours must prepare for the possibility that volatility will persist – and perhaps intensify.

The first priority is clear: ensure supply continuity. The Philippines must proactively engage existing suppliers while expanding its network of energy partners. Diversification is no longer a long-term goal; it’s an immediate necessity. Strengthening ties with traditional Middle Eastern suppliers is not enough. We need to accelerate our energy mix with renewable energy.

For now, we need adequate domestic reserves. While we do not maintain stockpiles on the scale of larger economies, there is room to enhance buffer capacity through closer government and private sector coordination. Even a small increase in reserves can be a lifesaver.

At this crucial stage, recognizing the role of the private sector in complementing government efforts is also important.

I have long admired the quiet but decisive leadership of Ricky Razon, whose global reach and network have repeatedly proven valuable to the nation in times of need. During the height of the pandemic, he stepped forward, putting up the funds for the procurement of 20 million doses of Moderna vaccines – an act that significantly accelerated the country’s recovery.

Which is why it is encouraging to see that Ricky is utilizing his international connections, particularly in South America, for arrangements to secure an immediate supply of approximately one million barrels of oil. While this may not fully offset global pressures, it represents the kind of timely, practical intervention that can help stabilize supply and give us breathing space.

Such efforts underscore an important reality: in moments of crisis, national resilience is strongest when public and private sectors move in concert.

A next priority is managing the domestic impact of rising oil prices that ripple across the economy. Transport fares rise, food prices follow and inflationary pressures build. For ordinary Filipinos – particularly those in vulnerable sectors – this can quickly translate into real hardship.

Temporary but sustainable measures to support affected sectors may be necessary, such as fuel subsidies for public transport drivers, assistance for farmers and fishermen. Stabilizing prices of basic commodities can help reduce the burden for consumers. However, there must be discipline to ensure that emergency assistance goes to those who are in most need without overspending public funds.

The third – and most strategic – priority is accelerating energy resilience. Lessons from past oil crises show that over-dependence on imported fossil fuels is a structural vulnerability.

We have made great progress in expanding renewable energy. Our natural advantages in solar, wind and geothermal energy can help shield us from global oil price spikes. It is urgent therefore that approvals for renewable projects be streamlined. Investments in grid modernization must be accelerated, and policies that encourage private sector participation must be strengthened and made more predictable.

Ensuring a reliable power supply will require a mix of transitional sources, including natural gas, as we shift towards a more sustainable and cleaner future.

In Washington, discussions increasingly reflect a dual approach – managing immediate risks while investing in long-term transformation. The United States and its allies are focused on stabilizing oil markets and reshaping the global energy landscape through innovation, strategic reserves and strengthened partnerships. This presents a clear opportunity for the Philippines to gain.

Enhanced cooperation with other like-minded partners can play a vital role in strengthening our energy security. This includes not only access to supply but also collaboration in clean energy technology, infrastructure development and investment.

At the same time, we must not overlook our neighbors in Southeast Asia who share common vulnerabilities when it comes to energy dependence. Greater regional coordination – whether through shared reserves, joint procurement mechanisms or enhanced information exchange – can significantly improve collective resilience.

Oil crises are inherently unpredictable, but their consequences can be managed through foresight, coordination and decisive leadership. As ASEAN chair, the Philippines is in a unique position to elevate energy security as a regional priority at a time when it matters most. Ultimately, what is required is not alarm – but preparedness.

The Philippines has weathered similar challenges before, and it can do so again with sound policy, strong alliances and a clear strategic direction.

I was reminded of this in a recent conversation with a senior energy analyst who has seen multiple crises unfold over decades. His observation was both simple and sobering: markets recover, but the countries that act early before the full impact is felt – emerge stronger. Declaring a national energy emergency this early is the right path.

Because in the end, energy security is not just about keeping the lights on – it’s about protecting livelihoods, preserving stability and securing the nation’s future. In moments like this, the difference between vulnerability and resilience is simple: those who act early endure.

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