The Battle of Hormuz

The end to the Iran war, now on its third week, will be decided by one denouement event – the Battle of Hormuz.

Who gets control of that narrow passage in the Middle East or West Asia, 33 kms wide at its narrowest through which should pass 20 million barrels of oil a day, worth $2 billion, on board 150 tankers (plus significant volumes of natural gas and fertilizers), to prevent a prolonged global energy disruption, worsening inflation, an economic crisis and possibly stagflation for many countries, including the Philippines?

Per the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), these are the percent shares of global trade of commodities that pass through the Strait of Hormuz, before the war: crude oil, 38 percent; LPG, 29; liquefied natural gas, 19; refined oil products, 19 and chemicals and fertilizers, 13. “The ongoing military escalation in the region has disrupted shipping flows through this narrow passage. The resulting ripple effects go far beyond the region, affecting energy markets, maritime transport and global supply chains,” says the UNCTAD.

Iran’s de facto blockade of the passage has sent oil prices galloping 40 percent to above $100 per barrel, with some analysts projecting highs of $200.  When oil prices go up, the prices of chemicals, fertilizers and food go up. Half of the poor’s budget is food.

Donald Trump will execute the US military’s takeover of the Strait of Hormuz, using a combination of a furious air war (missiles, drones, fighter jets, helicopter gunships), a naval war and, most worrisome of all, an infantry war where ground troops will invade Iran’s oil hub, Kharg, the “Forbidden Island,” 25 kms off the coast of Iran and 463 kms northwest of the Strait of Hormuz. The size of the original Makati (1,000 hectares), Kharg is a deep-water sea port from where Iran exports 90 percent of its oil products. It has fresh water, ancient ruins, cuneiform writing 500 years before Jesus Christ, oil reservoirs, missiles, combat-ready troops and all forms of weapons of mass destruction.

To invade the island, Trump on March 13, 2026 recruited 2,200 Marines from Sasebo, Japan of the US Seventh Fleet, boarded them into USS Tripoli en route to Kharg. At this writing, the USS Tripoli was reported in Singapore. Almost brand new (2020), the 45,000-ton Tripoli (LHA 7) is a unique amphibious assault ship. It does need to approach near Kharg island to unload troops and be in the line of fire of hostiles. It was designed for land battle with helicopters that can carry, in just minutes, combat troops to and fro while invading an island. Since Trump telegraphs his battle plans, Iran’s revolutionary guards are waiting for the American Marines at their fabled fortress island and economic hub. For sure, Iran’s nastiest warriors are there, for Allah and country.

Pray that the Americans will win this fierce battle – aerial, naval and infantry.  Depending on how it is waged, the Battle of Hormuz could rank as among history’s great battles, just like the Battle of Marathon (490 BC) where the Greeks defeated Persian invaders and saved democracy; the 1453 Siege of Constantinople that ended the Byzantine Empire; the 1571 Battle of Lepanto that broke Ottoman naval invincibility; the 1777 Battle of Saratoga, the turning point of the American Revolution, and the 1942-43 Battle of Stalingrad which led to the defeat of Nazi Germany. Hopefully, Emperor Trump won’t be afflicted by his TACO virus when the moment comes.

Trump sought reinforcements from what he thought are his friends and allies to provide warships but was rebuffed. “This not our war; we did not start it,” balked German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. “Spain will never accept any stopgap measures” to keep the strait open, sneered Defense Minister Margarita Robles, “because the objective must be for the war to end, and ‌for  it to end now.” “Diplomacy needs to prevail,” advised Italy Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani. The UK will not be drawn into a wider war, rejected PM Keir Starmer.

Here in Manila, the sense of the global crisis has not fully been absorbed by most Filipinos – yet. Surveys are fixated with who has a higher trust or approval rating, BBM or Sara; the presidential matchups in 2028 (like Sara and Marcoleta, for the green army with yellow ideas), and why some public utility drivers didn’t receive their P5,000 ayuda from BBM to help them out amid record-high gasoline and diesel prices.

Congress has allowed the President to cut or suspend excise taxes on petroleum products to cushion the impact of high prices. Do not lower the tax, Sir BBM. Increase the tax some more (to force energy savings) and use the additional revenues to fund higher ayuda amounts for the poor. Anyway, our ultra billionaires pay only, on average, less than two percent of their income as taxes. And they are the biggest consumers of diesel, gasoline and other refined petroleum products.

Here is UNCTAD’s summary of implications of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz:

Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz underscore the vulnerability of critical maritime chokepoints to geopolitical tensions and their potential to transmit shocks across supply chains and commodity markets.

Reducing risks to global trade and development, including environmental risks, requires de-escalation and safeguarding maritime transport, ports and seafarers and other civilian infrastructure, while maintaining secure trade corridors in line with international law and freedom of navigation.

Economic impacts, both globally and for the region, will depend on the duration, intensity and geographic scope of the tensions. Continued monitoring is essential to assess evolving risks and their potential impacts.

Socio-economic implications for developing economies: many developing countries already face high debt service burdens, limited fiscal space and constrained access to finance.

In this context, rising energy, transport and food costs could strain public finances and increase pressure on household budgets, potentially heightening economic and social pressures and complicating progress toward sustainable development, particularly in economies heavily dependent on imported energy, fertilizers and staple foods.

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