Consolation

This is a small consolation. But at a time when all sorts of doomsday scenarios proliferate, this is a most welcome one.

In the face of wild price swings in energy prices, the Malampaya oil field gives us some measure of price predictability. Because prices are determined by long-term domestic formulas rather than spot market panic, gas from the small field we actually drill is priced at an average $8.50 per MMBtu. Compare that to the global natural gas market where prices spiked by 50 percent – and rising even higher.

Qatar and Bahrain have declared force majeure on their LNG production due to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. Supply chains for the world’s gas supply have been cut and the dislocation could last months. Major petrochemical industries in Europe and Asia have themselves declared force majeure on their downstream production. Without a reliable supply of LNG, industries are shutting down like falling dominos.

The Philippines now effectively has a two-tier gas market. The first tier is indigenous, stable and pipeline-based. The second tier is imported, benchmark-linked and tanker-dependent.

Malampaya gas used to supply 40 percent of the Luzon power grid. That has now dropped to 20 percent. This is still significant. Every cubic foot of domestically produced gas is a cubic foot of supply we will not have to hunt for in a distressed global gas market.

Small as it is, our domestic natural gas supplies are not infinite. The original Malampaya wells are expected to dry up in 2027. Fortunately, some gas deposits were discovered at the Malampaya East-1 field. We expect to begin drawing gas from these new wells by the end of this year.

Fortunately, the Malampaya consortium was able to secure extension of Service Contract 38 up to 2039. This renewal opened the way to the launch of the $893-million Phase 4 drilling campaign that produced the fresh discoveries. The revitalization of our gas production continues with the completion of the Camago-3 well and the continued exploration of the Bagong Pag-asa site.

The newly confirmed deposits will not bring back the historic peak of 40 percent grid contribution. The best scenario is that our gas supply may contribute about 2,000 MW to the nation’s power grid.

It is wrong to assume that our national energy strategy ought to be a binary choice between natural gas and renewables. Natural gas fuels the plants that backstop our efforts to widen renewable energy use.

The Malampaya field has been beneficial for government revenues. To date, gas production from this field contributed $14 billion to the public coffers. For every dollar of Malampaya gas sold, about 47 cents accrue to the state – certainly much more than imported LNG contributes.

We have no illusion domestic production will ever cut our dependence on imported energy. But some amount of indigenous gas production allows us more flexibility in designing our energy security.

The current nightmare in the global market must compel us to continue exploration for more indigenous natural gas deposits.

Deficient

The murderous incident at an otherwise well-guarded condominium estate in Parañaque is easier to blame on the quality of property management available to residents. It turns out, the suspect was the subject of an arrest warrant for years and sought refuge in the estate.

But a review of the incident tells us some other things. The first responders were at the basketball court where the shooting happened within seven minutes of the incident. Within 13 minutes, the most critically wounded victims were already at the property gate and loaded onto an on-site emergency vehicle.

By any measure, the emergency response inside the residential compound was not a failure. It could have been slightly faster; but it was not a failure. The failure happened outside the compound.

To begin with, it is not within the competence of the property management to know that the suspect was long the subject of an arrest warrant. It is certainly not their business to enforce this warrant. They have no police powers.

It is now established that the suspect, living in the Azure compound, was subject to a warrant of arrest issued in 2023. The DILG secretary confirmed this. The PNP confirmed this. What was never explained to us is why the arrest warrant had not been served for three years.

Warrants do not serve themselves. The private residential property management office has no legal authority, no legal access to RTC criminal records and no mechanism to compel the courts to enforce their own orders. A registered unit owner has unconditional access to all common areas absent a court-issued restraining order.

A security guard of the compound has the job of restricting access to the estate for the security of the resident. He is in no position to block service of the warrant if this is done according to standard procedure and fully documented. This is a police failure.

We have thousands of gated communities in this country. They are not sovereign territories. What we lack are clear protocols for the service of warrants. This is not a novel idea; just an overdue one.

The three critically wounded victims in this shooting were rushed to the nearest hospital. It turns out, that hospital could only accommodate one trauma patient at a time. The two others expired at a public hospital.

What do we do in a mass casualty event?