Volatile

On its 12th day, the Iran War took a turn for the worse, despite US President Donald Trump trumpeting on March 9 (March 10 in Manila) “we are winning very decisively.” He told US media American goals may be “pretty well complete,” with over 5,000 targets hit. The same day, he also told House Republicans in Florida that “we’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough.”

With US victory, Trump said, “It’s the beginning of building a new country, but they (Iran) certainly have no navy, they have no Air Force and they have no anti-aircraft equipment. It’s all been blown up. They have no radar. They have no telecommunications. And they have no leadership. It’s all gone.”

Amid closure of Strait of Hormuz (where a fifth of the world’s oil passes through), the US president said, “We’re looking at the oil prices going down. They went artificially up because of this excursion into a very positive thing. I mean, this was an excursion that a lot of people wouldn’t have done. I knew oil prices would go up if I did this, and they’ve gone up probably less than I thought they’d go up. But I don’t think anybody thought we were going to be this quickly successful.”

After Trump’s assurances, on March 9 and 10, Brent crude plunged 25 percent to $90 or below, $83/$84 per barrel, after hitting $119.50, wild swings never seen before. At this writing, Brent was trading $83/$87 per barrel. But Trump’s use of “excursion” to describe his unprovoked invasion of Iran angered relatives of US servicemen who died (eight so far) amid the operation.

The situation is highly volatile. “As of March 11, 2026, the 12th day of the US-Israeli war against Iran is marked by intensified strikes, with US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth describing it as the ‘most intense day’ of operations inside Iran. The conflict involves heavy aerial bombardment of Tehran, retaliatory strikes from Iran and regional involvement from Lebanon, Iraq and Gulf states,” sums up AI.

Daily, 20 million barrels of oil are stalled in the Strait of Hormuz, with 150 tankers waiting for the waters to clear up. At least six vessels have been attacked or forced to turn back due to drone/missile risks and GPS jamming. Trump promised the US Navy will escort oil tankers – a situation akin to a tricycle of groceries being escorted by a Buick Escalade. The Iranians would rather attack the P12-million Buick than the P20,000 worth of groceries.

In New York, President Marcos Jr. promised to tap alternative oil supplies amid global market uncertainty. He said the government is in talks with other oil-producing countries.

He also told Department of Migrant Workers Secretary Hans Cacdac to fly to the Middle East and personally attend to the repatriation of stranded OFWs, and to take action on an arrogant DMW functionary in Bahrain.

Caught on video, DMW Bahrain employee, Anthony Allermo berated OFWs seeking government help: “Tapos na po ha, hindi na kayo mae-entertain. Tapos na po ang ayuda. Magsumbong na kayo sa mga gusto ninyong pagsumbungan. Ang Manila ho ang nagsasabi walang pondo. Sige i-record n’yo, kahit magsumbong pa kayo sa Pilipinas (It’s over, you won’t be entertained anymore. The assistance has ended. You can report to whoever you want to report to. Manila is the one saying there is no budget. Go ahead, record it, you can even report it to the Philippines).” The guy should have been fired on the spot.

In New York before departing for Manila, Marcos Jr. told media: “We are talking to many other countries who we normally do not buy oil from but hopefully we will be able to come to an agreement with them and that we will get further supply from them,” the President told the press corps accompanying him to New York.

Facing the challenge of other world leaders, the President highlighted the unpredictability of global oil prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

“The real problem here that everybody is having to deal with is hindi natin alam kung gaano katagal ito,” Marcos emphasized.

He noted that the uncertainty about the duration of these tensions and potential war scenarios make accurate forecasting of oil prices exceptionally difficult, and volatility affects planning for both oil suppliers and financial markets globally.

Despite the challenges, the administration remains committed to ensuring a stable and affordable oil supply for the country.

In the Senate, veteran Senator Loren Legarda did something sensible. She filed three complementary bills reforming the country’s value-added tax (VAT) system to lower the general VAT rate, exempt basic goods and services and correct distortions in electricity billing to ensure fairness and fiscal responsibility.

“This reform lowers VAT where it matters most, on everyday consumption, while ensuring that those who can afford luxury and premium goods continue to contribute fairly,” she says. “Lower VAT for ordinary Filipinos, stable revenues for government, that is the balance we are striking. In a time of rising costs, we must cushion families wisely and sustainably.”

Senate Bill No. 1851, or the Differentiated Value-Added Tax Rates Act, reduces the general VAT rate from 12 percent to 10 percent while retaining the 12 percent rate on luxury, premium and environmentally harmful goods and services. High-value motor vehicles, premium residential real estate, designer goods, private aircraft and watercraft, sin products and hazardous products will remain subject to the higher rate.

SB 1857, or the Murang Bilihin at Serbisyong Medikal Act, exempts basic commodities, utilities and medical services from VAT. Covered items include over-the-counter medicines, first-aid supplies, canned goods, noodles, bread, cooking oil, laundry soap, sanitary products, residential water and electricity consumption within lifeline thresholds and basic internet access.

SB 1859 clarifies the VAT treatment of electricity subsidies and statutory charges under the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA) to exclude lifeline subsidies for low-income households, senior citizen discounts and cooperative capital expenditure contributions from VAT computation, consistent with the Supreme Court doctrine that entrusted funds not benefiting utilities should not be taxed.

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