Is a political storm coming?

Amidst criticisms that our representatives have prioritized the impeachment complaints against Vice President Sara Duterte over a looming economic crisis brought about by the war involving Iran, Israel, and America, the Committee on Justice at the House of Representatives (HOR) overwhelmingly voted, 54-1, that the third and fourth impeachment complaints against her are sufficient in substance.

She has been given 10-non extendible days to submit her answer. No one is shocked. Knowing that many in the committee had also pushed for Sara's impeachment before (the one previously trashed by the Supreme Court), I did not harbor any expectation that the said committee would vote otherwise.

The complaints are on their way to the plenary. There will be debates. There will be pressure from the left and right. And with the trending stories about trolley bags filled with a lot of money, ordinary people may well ask: Will there be many suitcases full of cold cash?

Some say that there are congressmen and congresswomen who are lukewarm to the idea of impeaching the vice president, as doing so may risk their political future. I believe this holds true in areas where the incumbents face serious challenges in their respective bids for reelection. However, in districts where the representatives rule like kings or queens, there is little chance that the impeachment issue will affect the local elections.

The question voters in remote areas ask is not whether their representative is passionate about certain issues. Their question is whether their representative has projects like waiting sheds, mini-gyms, and school buildings. They also wait for dole-outs, not appeals for love of country. That is the sad reality.

My hope is that there will be conscience votes, which means that each representative will be allowed to cast their votes according to the dictates of their conscience. But this would take a miracle. Political parties will certainly crack the whip to ensure that their members toe the line. The privileges of being with the party in power are simply irresistible to many politicians.

However, if the impeachment complaint reaches the Senate, I believe it will be a different ballgame there. Recall that senators are elected nationwide, and the people will be closely watching them. Certainly, there will be pressure. But there are still senators who uphold the institution's independence. While the voting pattern in the HOR is predictable, the same cannot be said of the Senate. So, let us watch and learn.

Even if we grant that VP Sara eventually gets convicted by the Senate and is barred from running for any elective position, her critics and haters have very little reason to celebrate. Their victory may prove hollow. Why? It will not be the end of the Dutertes. I think the Dutertes have prepared for Plans B and C. They still have Baste Duterte and Polong Duterte, both of whom are also well-loved by the Filipinos.

Remember that even if she gets convicted, and is perpetually disqualified from running for public office, she is not barred from endorsing, campaigning and going around the country for her preferred candidate. The huge sympathy generated by the trial at The Hague of former president Rodrigo Duterte and Sara's conviction (if that happens) may prove to be the last nails in the political coffins of the enemies of the Dutertes.

Is a political storm coming?