A worsening war

On its fourth day, millions were praying for the biggest war the world has seen in a generation to end – the United States-Israel vs. Iran war. It may take some time before their prayers are heard.

The Iran war will get worse before it subsides. It has expanded and now involves four continents – America, Europe and the Middle East (ME) which, while not a continent, spans Asia, Africa, and partly, Europe. The 17 countries counted as Middle East: seven from the Arabian Peninsula – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Yemen; eight from Western Asia – Cyprus, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria and Turkey. Plus Egypt and Iran.

Proud Iran is 4.75 times the size of the Philippines. It is mountainous but half its land is desert. Under Cyrus the Great (600-530 BC), Iran was once the greatest and largest of empires. Ironically, it was Cyrus who freed the Jews from the Babylonian captivity, in 538-539 BC. Cyrus decreed to let the Jewish people return to their homeland in Judah and funded the rebuilding of the Temple in Jerusalem. Today, Israel, along with the US, is Iran’s greatest enemy.

Iran has the world’s third-largest proven oil reserves, about 208-209 billion barrels, 12 percent of global oil reserves and 25 percent of the ME’s reserves. Despite international sanctions limiting its production, Iran is a major OPEC producer, with 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) output in 2026.

This is the Iran in which Donald Trump has attempted a regime change with an eye for its vast oil riches and a window to dictate the geopolitics of the world’s hottest spot.

In 24 hours from 1 p.m. Manila time of Saturday, Feb. 28, Trump unleashed an invading armada twice the size of the force that conquered Iraq in one day – more than 50,000 troops, 200 jetfighters and two aircraft carriers and bombers under Operation Epic Fury which pummeled over 2,000 targets. In the first hour of attack, the US and Israel killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, his wife, his grandson, son-in-law and daughter-in-law, and Iran military’s top commanders but missed Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, 56, also a religious leader and the likely successor to preserve the 47-year rule of the ayatollahs.

The BBC quoted the Israeli military saying it had struck Iran’s presidential office, a covert nuclear compound, and a Revolutionary Guards commander in Tehran. The US military said it destroyed command facilities, missile launch sites and airfields. “We’re focused on shooting all the things that can shoot at us,” said Admiral Brad Cooper, chief, US Central Command, “we are also sinking the Iranian Navy, the entire navy, 17 Iranian ships were destroyed, including the most operational submarine that now has a hole in its side.” Inside Iran, 787 were killed.

Iran retaliated with equal fury. In four days, it launched 500 ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones on US forces and allies in the ME. With $20,000 drones against $2 million per piece US missiles, it has killed four US servicemen, 11 civilians in Israel and five in Gulf countries. Iran has paralyzed ME airports, disrupting global travel which the region uses as economic lifeline on top of diminishing oil revenues. Cancellations swept across seven major ME airports – Dubai International, Hamad International Airport in Doha, Zayed International Airport in Abu Dhabi, Sharjah International Airport, Kuwait International Airport, Bahrain International Airport and Dubai World Central-Al Maktoum International – more than 12,300 flights, Feb. 28 to March 3 alone.

The Iran war’s biggest impact is on oil prices. With its arsenal of terror, Tehran has effective control of the Strait of Hormuz, the 33-km wide strait between Iran and Oman through which passes 20 percent of the world’s seaborne oil and 30 percent of the natural gas.

During 2026, oil was supposed to average $55-58 per barrel due to some glut early in the year. Instead, oil has surged 24 percent to as high as $82 per barrel, from $66 in January 2026, due to the Iran war and is likely to sweep past $100 if the hostilities continue. And they will. Some analysts forecast oil hitting $150 per barrel because the US-Israel vs. Iran war has shown no signs of abating.

The US State Department has ordered all Americans in 14 ME countries to evacuate, a sign the US sees a prolonged war for which it seems unprepared. CNN reports that Trump has warned that the most significant wave of military action has not yet even begun, signaling a major escalation is still ahead. In an interview, Trump said the “big wave” of attacks is coming soon, suggesting that US operations are entering a more intense phase. Initially, he had estimated the operation to last four to five weeks. Now, he does not know. He also does not know how to end the war he started without provocation and without a single vote of approval from the US Congress.

With crude at above $100 per barrel and Manila gasoline at P90 per liter, traffic will disappear overnight in Metro Manila. So will what remains of the administration’s declining job approval ratings. There will be a recession, a massive recession.

For his part, worried by the third day of the war, super analyst Joey Salceda was aghast: “For the Philippines, the immediate concern is personal. More than 2.4 million Filipinos live and work across the Middle East: roughly 973,000 in the UAE, 813,000 in Saudi Arabia, 250,000 in Qatar, 211,000 in Kuwait and tens of thousands more in Bahrain, Oman, Jordan, Israel and Iran. These are not abstract numbers. These are mothers, fathers, nurses, engineers and caregivers who send billions of dollars home every year, sustaining families and communities from Luzon to Mindanao. Some have already been injured. All of them face an uncertain future in a region that is getting more dangerous by the hour.”

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