New month, new war

And there goes the Year of the Fire Horse, galloping into March with a large-scale geopolitical conflict initiated by the United States and Israel against Iran.

Here, in our corner of the world, we may be nine hours away by plane from the Middle East, but we will not be spared.

In fact, we must brace ourselves for a hard landing – local oil prices will skyrocket, the stock market will spiral downward, the peso will slump, and tourism will also take a hit.

Ah, the list goes on and on, and while I would prefer not to write about another war on this first day of a new week, I don’t really have much choice, given the latest move of the US-Israeli alliance, which is already sending ripples across the globe.

It’s the last thing the Philippines needs right now because it comes at a time when we are somehow making strides to stand up and get back on track.

Goodbye bull market

For instance, the Philippine stock market has been on a roll, with at least five consecutive sessions of strong performance over the past two weeks. Last Friday, the PSEi closed at 6,611, its highest level since January 2025.

“From the November 2025 low of 5,584, the index has rallied 18.4 percent – less than two percent shy of the 20 percent threshold that technically defines a bull market. After being stuck between 5,800 and 6,500 for most of the past year, the index has broken above the critical 6,500 resistance. If 6,500 holds as support, the next test is 7,000, followed by 7,500. A move to 7,000 and beyond would put the PSEi firmly in bull market territory,” says our stock market expert, The STAR’s Business columnist Wilson Sy of PhilEquity.

But with what just happened, it’s goodbye again to a looming bull market – at least for now.

As for the peso, we were seeing a strong start, the best in 14 years, because of strong stock inflows, but such gains are at risk now.

“The currency is up almost two percent this year, the most since early 2012, as the currency’s rebound from a record low in January gathers pace. Investors poured money into the local stock market for two straight months after eight years of net outflows,” according to a Bloomberg report.

The peso on Friday closed at 57.66 to the dollar, from 57.61 a day earlier, after opening at 57.7.

I don’t expect this strong showing to continue, not with the ongoing conflict.

Exports

We must also expect exports to slow down further, which unfortunately are still struggling to recover.

Philippine Exporters Confederation Inc. president Sergio Ortiz-Luis Jr. said that the escalating Middle East tensions have heightened global uncertainty, disrupted airspace and logistics routes, and triggered volatility in energy markets. This is according to a report by our Trade reporter Louella Desiderio.

For the Philippines, which is a net oil-importing country, Ortiz-Luis said higher fuel costs would raise exporters’ production, transport, and logistics expenses and erode price competitiveness in key markets.

And with a looming slowdown in the Middle East, which is a market for many of our food products and other commodities, we can also expect a negative impact on specific products.

“Export sectors such as electronics, garments, processed food, and furniture may face increased shipping rates, insurance premiums, and longer transit times as shipping routes are rerouted or disrupted,” Ortiz-Luis said, noting that past tensions in the region have already pushed up freight and security surcharges.

Against this backdrop, Philexport urged the government to closely monitor the evolving situation and adopt mitigating measures.

These include ensuring stable fuel supply, reviewing logistics bottlenecks, supporting exporters with trade facilitation and financing, and strengthening market diversification efforts.

Our overseas Filipinos, especially those in the Middle East, are also sure to be affected because these US-Israeli military strikes are bound to hit their host economies.

Jitters sweep across the private sector

As for our local companies, some have called for emergency meetings among key executives to assess the impact of the newly erupted war.

“This is too much disruption,” said one source whose company suddenly had to request proposals from oil suppliers for a hedged price.

History repeats itself

I join the world in condemning the joint military action against the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is a grave violation of international law and a dangerous escalation that threatens regional and global peace.

This is history repeating itself.

As the Center for People Empowerment in Governance (CenPEG) said, there are alarming historical parallels that expose the deeper dynamics of great-power militarism.

“Once again, we see a military escalation justified in the language of ‘security’ and ‘prevention,’ even as sustained diplomatic avenues are undermined. This is a reckless display of hegemonic power that once again places the people of the Middle East – and the world – at the losing end of militarized geopolitics,” said CenPEG chairperson Roland Simbulan.

I am one with those calling for an end to the conflict, which hurts ordinary people the most – women, children, and civilians caught in the crossfire.

There must be utmost respect for international law and, as CenPEG said, a stronger global commitment to non-intervention and sovereign equality.

We have seen far too many wars in our lifetime. How many more lives must be lost in this relentless and seemingly unending quest for power?

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