Iran and Filipinos

The US-Israeli war against Iran has a tremendous impact on Filipinos:

One, higher inflation, with higher prices of commodities and utilities arising from tension and speculation following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes.

“The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, with approximately 20 million barrels per day (about 20 percent of global consumption) passing through in 2024–2025. Located between Iran and Oman, it is essential for exporting oil from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and the UAE to Asia. Disruptions can cause massive price spikes, with limited alternatives, such as pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE that can bypass it,” says the US Energy Information Administration.

When you talk of utilities, you talk of oil.

“Petroleum products, largely derived from imported crude oil, account for approximately 29 percent to 45 percent of the Philippines’ total primary energy supply, serving as a primary driver of transport and energy costs. Despite the dominance of coal in power generation, oil remains crucial, with high dependence on imports leaving local prices susceptible to global market fluctuations,” says AI.

Two, displacement among our overseas Filipino workers, hundreds of thousands of whom are in the Middle East, the war’s ground zero.

Three, security risks for Filipinos and the Philippines that any war naturally brings about. The Philippines hosts nine military bases used by US forces.

After it was bombed, Iran launched retaliatory attacks against Persian Gulf countries hosting US bases – UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, Iraq and Kuwait. Key US installations hit or targeted include the 5th Fleet base in Bahrain, Al Udeid Air Base (Qatar), Al Dhafra Air Base (UAE) and Ali Al-Salem Air Base (Kuwait). These attacks reportedly resulted in casualties among US service members and civilians in the region, according to the BBC.

The main purpose of the US-Israeli bombing of Iran on Feb. 28, was regime change and to greatly diminish Iran’s nuclear capability and capacity to sow global terror.

The end of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, came 40 minutes past noon on Feb. 28, Manila time, when US and Israeli forces rained missiles in a “massive, wildly bold daytime attack” on his office and residential compound in Tehran, whose buildings were recently renovated for bomb-proofing and have a bunker so deep it takes an elevator five minutes to reach. Estimates place the number of casualties at more than 40, including Khamenei’s daughter, son-in-law, daughter-in-law and grandchild.

Amid what one pundit called the assassination of the century, President Donald Trump told Iranians to take advantage of Khamenei’s death “to take back their country,” as “their hour of freedom is at hand.”

New York Times columnist Bret Stephens cites three compelling reasons why Trump must act against Iran:

“Iran poses a threat to global order by way of its damaged but abiding nuclear ambitions, its deep strategic ties to Moscow and Beijing, its persistent threats to maritime commerce and its support for international terrorism.

“It poses a threat to regional stability, not just through its support for anti-Israel proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah, but also by its meddling in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and (until the overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad regime) Syria.

“And it’s a mortal threat to the life and safety of its own people, many thousands of whom it slaughtered last month.”

More than 2.5 million Filipinos are in the Middle East, mainly in Saudi Arabia (one million); UAE (900,000); Qatar (250,000); Kuwait (225,000); Bahrain (50,000); Oman (48,000); and Israel (30,000).

Of the $38.34 billion remitted by overseas Filipinos in 2024, 13.6 percent came from three Middle East countries – Saudi Arabia (6.4 percent), UAE (4.4 percent) and Qatar (2.8 percent) – a total of $5.21 billion.

OFW remittances contribute 8.3 percent of Philippine GDP, or the value of production and services.

If the Iran war takes years and Middle East Filipino workers are displaced, can our economy create 2.5 million jobs instantly for them?

At its current sluggish growth, the Philippine economy can create just one million jobs a year – not enough to employ 3.5 million domestic jobless plus the eight million underemployed.

Meanwhile, the $38 billion (P2.24 trillion) in annual remittances fuels the consumption that accounts for 84 percent of GDP.

Closer to home, oil is the basic ingredient of utilities consumption. Together, electricity, gas, fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipment, and passenger transport by road represent 30 percent of the consumer price index.

Our electricity is among the highest-priced in the world. Electricity normally accounts for 20 percent of industrial production costs, higher than labor costs at 15 percent. Why is Philippine rice priced at double the world price of rice?

Why is food so expensive in the Philippines? Because electricity and other utilities account for 33 percent to 50 percent of production costs. Among the poor – and they are the majority – food accounts for 50 percent, or half, of their expenditures.

A worker who earns P570 a day (the average minimum wage) spends P285 on food and another 30 percent, or P171, on transportation to and from work, leaving P114 daily for a family of four. How do you feed four people with the remaining P114? You cannot.

What do you do then? You steal. Our congressmen, senators and certain Cabinet members do it with elan and impunity.

Or kill – just like the hired killers of Atong Ang, a number of whom are policemen.

But if you steal or kill and you are charged in court, where will you get the money to bribe the judiciary – another high-cost item? The solution, as suggested by Trump? Revolt.

There is a Christian compromise – pray. Use Saint Francis’ version (Prayer for Peace):

Lord, make me an instrument of your peace:

Where there is hatred, let me sow love;

Where there is injury, pardon;

Where there is doubt, faith;

Where there is despair, hope;

Where there is darkness, light;

Where there is sadness, joy.

Meanwhile, my advice: Prepare for dark, darker, and difficult times ahead. Prayers alone won’t solve them.

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