Duterte’s queen’s gambit

The Philippines’ political environment and developments are getting more interesting, even if the 2028 presidential election is still more than two years away. The bad and contentious split into adversaries of the “Uniteam” of Marcos and Duterte is so pregnant with complications it has and will have large social, political and economic effects/consequences on the country. Given the increasing intensity of their fight, it will also have grave implications on the Marcos and Duterte as political powers and families.

 The social, political, and economic environment since four years ago, when Marcos-Duterte won have changed in many ways. The rapid growth of social media has shifted socio-political information faster and broader creating volatile influences and sentiments among the Filipino people and voters. Good news and bad news travel faster and wider. Fake news is aplenty and paid influencers are on all sides.

 The economic and demographic profiles of the Filipinos here and abroad have also changed, with a larger middle class, and more Gen X, Y, Zs in the population. Citizens in the 20 to 50 age groups will now dominate the voting population. Literacy has increased but not functional literacy, so there is still a dearth of critical-thinking Filipinos.

               Aside from the recent announcement of Sara Duterte that she will run for president in 2028, there are a number of important events and happenings. There is the ICC trial of former president Rodrigo Duterte in The Hague for alleged crimes against humanity in the drug killings, the DPWH corruption scandals that involves high-ranking senators, congressmen and public officials, the public clamor to end family political dynasties, the four impeachment complaints filed against VP Sara Duterte, and the slower growth of the Philippine economy in 2025.

               All of the above socio-political events and developments have and will have effects on the Marcoses and the Dutertes positively and negatively. It is the work of the strategists and tacticians of both camps to discern which are good or bad for them, and to come up with the moves to enhance the favorable or counter the unfavorable.

               The queen’s gambit is a classic chess opening move where the queen protects the D4 pawn to take control of the center. It is a strategic move meant for a longer battle rather than an immediate tactical fight. The early declaration of Sara Duterte to run for the 2028 presidency looks like a queen’s gambit, to take the center stage now with all the complex socio-political events and developments engulfing both the Marcos and Duterte families and followers.

  I do not know who are the advisers of the Marcos and Duterte camps, or if their “think tanks” are competent or deep enough to navigate successfully the political environment in the next 24 months. Some of the moves from both sides are mostly reactions without possible end-game scenarios, and some are just lucky breaks. Corporate strategists and students of human behavior in organizations will find and know that the next 24 months in the Philippines will be interesting times.

It should also be considered that political history and successful outcomes have favored and slanted to the more ethical/moral protagonists, regardless of religion. These are the reasons that countries and the world have moved or progressed more when there is a rule based moral order anchored on truth, justice, and liberty.

  I am not a good chess player as I did not play enough in college, and two of my grandchildren can beat me anytime. However, chess concepts and strategies are part of Corporate Strategic Planning and Control, and I have nine units of these in the graduate school and fellowship, with actual applications in work.