Sara Duterte’s presidential aspiration

“Mga kababayan, ibalik natin ang tapang at malakasakit. Para sa Diyos. Para sa Bayan. At para sa bawat Pamilyang Pilipino. Ako si Sara Duterte, tatakbo bilang Pangulo ng Pilipinas.” Vice President Sara Duterte, on her intention to run for president of the country.

Did the announcement come too early?

It is common political wisdom that it is unwise for any presidential aspirant to announce her or his intention to run too early, as it gives opponents enough time to attack. Manny Villar and Jejomar Binay learned this lesson too late.

However, for every rule, there is always an exception. Sara has been subjected to brutal attacks against her person, her family, and her office even before she distanced herself from the Palace. Investigations specifically targeted her. Her critics have practically thrown everything at her. To Sara’s loyal supporters, no matter what is leveled against her, it is all political. That’s one of the reasons she continues to top in many presidential surveys.

How strong is Sara? So far she appears to be the strongest, based on surveys. Throughout her political journey, the DDS (Duterte Diehard Supporters) have not left her. Many thought that FPRRD’s transfer to The Hague would weaken his political base. I think the opposite is true. It reinvigorated that base.

Note that in 2022, Sara was also leading in presidential surveys. Had it not been for her, there might not have been a BBM presidency. At the very least, a significant portion of the votes can be attributed to the Duterte factor. He courted Sara and many supporters grudgingly voted for him. It is no wonder that in her statement revealing her intention to run in 2028, Sara apologized to her supporters for having supported BBM.

In fact, former senator Franklin Drilon acknowledged Sara’s high chances of winning in 2028, thus he suggested that her opponents should field a single common candidate.

Where is she strongest? Sara is strongest in Mindanao. She is also strong in the Visayas. While she remains competitive in Luzon, victory there will not be walk in the park. Therefore, she may need a vice presidential running mate from Luzon. That is time-tested political wisdom.

Who are Sara’s opponents? The plan of VP Sara Duterte’s opponents has been obvious from the start: to remove her from the equation in the 2028 presidential election.

Her opponents believe that the more candidates there are, the higher her chances of winning. Thus, they are searching for a common candidate who can defeat her.

How can they materialize this plan? Let us look first who these groups are.

We have the Yellow Force, the remnants of the Liberal Party. How strong is the party? We are not so sure yet, but it can be recalled that in the several elections after Noynoy Aquino’s presidency, it fielded senatorial candidates who lost miserably.

We have the Kakampink. They are identified with Leni Robredo who lost in her presidential bid in 2022. But it was because of the Uniteam.

We have the Leftist groups, namely, the Macabayan bloc, and the more moderate Akbayan, which is identified with Sen. Risa Hontiveros.

If the administration party aligns with any of the above-mentioned groups, there is no question that machinery and logistics will be ensured. However, history has shown that these two factors do not always guarantee victory. Mitra and De Venecia are classic examples.

But the Duterte camp has to prepare for the worst. If Sara is convicted in an impeachment trial, who will replace her? Will her replacement be strong as she is?