Why BBM won't dare to fire Sec. Frasco?

It would be a big political blunder for President BBM to remove DOT Secretary Cristina Frasco from the Cabinet. There shall be two major political implications: First, the president will lose the Garcia and Frasco support in Cebu. Second, such a move would push the Garcias and Frascos to fall into the lap of VP Sara. That would be a political suicide.

Besides, Cristina, the secretary, despite all the things said against her, or about her DOT stewardship, has remained steadfast, focused and passionate. She is made of sterner stuff like her mom. In fact, she is much better because she is a lawyer like her Lolo Pabling who was a governor, congressman and deputy speaker, and like her lola, Judge Inday Garcia.  She is brilliant like her uncle Pablo John, the Bar topnotcher, and has the management acumen of her uncle Winston. You cannot put a lady like that down.

BBM has Cabinet members who are much less qualified. And the president needs the Cebu vote in 2028 for his bets. No matter what you say about former Gwen Garcia, she still has the loyalty of 80% of the mayors and congressmen in the province. While Governor Pam Baricuatro is busy governing the province, addressing disasters and calamities, and doing social media and Tik Tok, Gwen's political allies, and loyal followers and leaders are moving round the clock, organizing, rebuilding political structures, reviewing and strengthening alliances and planning a huge come back.

The coming barangay elections in November will see the resurgence of the Garcia political muscles in all the nooks and crannies of the province from Daanbantayan to Santander. Gwen needs to demonstrate to the Palace that they should not mess with Secretary Frasco or else they will see a landslide debacle in 2028. I am not exactly a fan of the Garcia and Frasco politics but I need to acknowledge the realpolitik on the ground. The mayors are playing games with Governor Baricuatro as of now just to bring home the bacon.

But when the rubber hits the road in 2028, the Capitol occupants today may not know what shall hit them. As long as the Gullases of the first district shall remain with Gwen, no Bariciatro candidate can ever topple the mayors of the Nacionalista Party from Sibonga to Talisay. As long as Edsel Galeos sticks it out with Gwen, Barricuatro and Ace Durano cannot win again in the ADABOSS second district or Argao, Dalaguete Alcoy, Boljoon, Oslob, Santander and Samboan.

Of course, the Garcias are still unbeatable in the third district. Baricuatro is not even supported by her relatives in Aloguinsan. And I doubt if Sarsi Baricuatro of Dumanjug as well as the Gica empire will even dream of abandoning Gwen Garcia. With the Calderons, husband and wife and the money of Quirante, it is difficult to topple the Gracias in their own turf. In fact, Baricuatro lost heavily in Dumanjug and Barili in the last elections. The seventh district will go back to Gwen in 2028.  That is bound to happen and BBM knows that vey well. Didn't BBM come to Dumanjug in 2024?

The same is true in the fourth district, more so, in the fifth and in the sixth. As long as Gwen remains supported by the Ouanos of Mandaue, the Chans in Lapu-Lapu, The Gullases in Talisay, the Martinezes in Bogo, Baricuatro will become a one-term governor. Glenn Soco is loyal to Gwen. Majority of the board members will most likely remain with Gwen. For all these reasons, it will be a great suicide for Malacanang to fire Cristina Frasco.

Firing Frasco is equivalent to declaring war with the Garcias and the Frascos and their allies. That would be handing over to Inday Sara about five million votes or even more. All is fair in love and politics. I am not a Gwen lackey or apologist. I have never voted for her. But I am a realist. I call a spade a spade.

The way I see it, the last election was a sui generis. It will not be like that again in 2028. BBM knows his marbles. Cristina will remain in the DOT. Fring Frasco is like jumping into the Kennon Road ravine or diving from the top of the Osmeña Peak between Dalaguete and Badian.