2026: The make or break year

I had the chance to meet Ronald Llamas in a hotel in Cebu City last January 20, 2026, at a roundtable discussion with members of the local media on current political and social issues. Llamas is a noted political commentator and a former member of the Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III administration, where he served as presidential adviser for Political Affairs.

During the Noynoy Aquino administration, I was able to bring my students to visit Malacañang through the Office of the Presidential Adviser for Political Affairs. One of the staff there, a trusted member of Llamas’ team, was a good friend of mine, Mark Chang, and he arranged the visit for us.

During that visit, my students and I learned how intricate policymaking and presidential decision-making really are. Political decisions are not made on a whim. They are grounded not only in expert insights but also in solid data gathering and research.

These days, I follow Llamas’ sharp insights and his regular evening podcast banter with social media influencer Christian Esguerra. As I mentioned earlier, he was in Cebu last January 20 for a luncheon and media meet-up organized by friends and supported by the FILCEB Business Club, led by Rey Calooy. FILCEB is an organization of Cebu-based micro, small, and medium entrepreneurs. I came at the invitation of former Cebu City Councilor Alvin Dizon, who also facilitated the discussion.

The main takeaway from our discussion was Llamas’s point that 2026 is a crucial, if not make-or-break, year for any political movement or project heading into the 2028 election year. Any moves or developments this year will significantly shape what happens to the country in 2028.

Indeed, 2026 promises to be an interesting year. The other day, a Senate coup was reportedly averted after the majority rallied behind a supposed power-sharing arrangement. I’m glad the majority of senators found it more prudent to avert a leadership change, considering how fragile the situation is right now. Fragile in the sense that our institutions are struggling to maintain the trust and faith of the people, and any moves seen as self-serving or aimed at shielding those facing criminal liability could further erode public confidence in the system. For now, at least, the Senate seems to be holding the fort.

At the House of Representatives, the Committee on Justice on Wednesday junked the impeachment complaints filed against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. for “insufficiency in substance.” Meanwhile, the House is expected to tackle next the two impeachment complaints against Vice President Sara Duterte filed on February 2. A source told me that another impeachment complaint will be filed against Duterte on Monday, February 9. Many expect these complaints to lead to a trial in the Senate. As for Marcos, the public appetite to pursue him is low at the moment, as attention has shifted to 2028.

In the event of a Senate trial for Duterte, a guilty verdict is not in the bag, of course, given the Senate’s independent streak and the number of opposition senators. But I surmise the objective of pro-impeachment groups is really to bring forth evidence that is damning and credible enough to make the Filipino people think hard about the vice president’s fitness to be their next leader, in the event of an acquittal and if Duterte makes that expected presidential run in 2028. This reminds me of Vice President Jejomar Binay in 2015, who was leading in the surveys, only to be politically dismantled by his enemies, paving the way for a Rodrigo Duterte surprise sprint to victory.

And then there is the ongoing investigation into the flood-control corruption scandal. The public is still waiting to see who will be next to face criminal charges. As is often the case in this country, those without political cover may end up on the chopping block. Typically, people are politically isolated before they are charged and sent to detention. That has always been the familiar rhythm of power here.

But all these political moves need to be handled with sensitivity to the moment. By that, I mean the current political system has outstayed its welcome. People are patient for now, but the situation can implode under the weight of politicians tinkering with our future for self-serving ends. When institutions look like mere instruments of factional advantage, the already-fragile social contract can tear. That is dangerous, but it can also be liberating, though either way it may turn violent.