What the new year promises to the Philippines?

The Year of the Horse may be more problematic than the Year of the Snake. But if our political leaders can pass a truly honest budget, reform the financial systems, pass the anti-dynasty law, return the stolen PhilHealth fund and restore the peoples' confidence in government, then, our economy may gallop into greater heights in 2026.

But if the current political and socio-economic situation remains, then our national life is expected to follow a downward trajectory.

The refiling of the impeachment charges against the vice president, which may take place either tomorrow or the next few days, shall trigger a recurrence of the heated political push and pull between the forces of the Palace and loyalists to the Marcoses on one hand, and the Duterte diehards from Mindanao and DDS allies in Luzon and the Visayas on the other.

The following important political events shall shape the Philippine political milieu in 2026; first, the re-filing of the impeachment complaints against the VP; second, the Rodrigo Duterte trial at The Hague; third, the exacerbation of the flood-control hullabaloo complicated further by the controversial death of Usec Catalina Cabral; and fourth, the heightening of the Imee-Bongbong feud.

The fifth event is the recurrent instability of the Senate and the House leadership driven by the flood-control controversy; sixth, increasing rallies and demonstration led by the progressive sectors of the labor and peasants alliances, the youth and students and the Church, calling for the ouster of both the president and the vice president; seventh, the continuing threats to our territorial integrity and national security by China's bullying in the West Philippine Sea.

The eighth and last are the impact and implications of the global political and security developments. We shall continue to be adversely affected by the unpredictable rivalries in the Asia-Pacific, the still-unresolved war between Russia and Ukraine and the continuing skirmishes between Israel and Palestine. These macro events shall continue to drive oil and gas prices and thus, exacerbate the economic and social lives of the Filipinos.

In the economic scene, the BBM administration will most likely not be able to hit its economic growth target of 6.5%. Economic and Development Secretary Arsenio Balisacan and his team of economic strategists and development planners should stop behaving as a perennial prophet of boom when all the macro and micro factors hovering over the Philippine economic arena are dark clouds and storms of social weather turbulence.

Even the World Bank disagreed with Balisacan and his team and revised the economic outlook of our country from Balisacan’s view of an exceedingly-optimistic 6.5% to a mere realistic projection of 5.3% at the most, subject to many stringent conditions. Inflation shall continue to rise and interest rates are rising too, thereby making it difficult for startups and small and micro enterprises to survive.

The national debt as of January 2025 had already reached ?16.31 trillion and because of the relentless weakening of the Philippine peso relative to the U.S. dollar, by this time our national debt should already be more than ?17 trillion. As if that isn’t enough misery to our economy, a great bulk of the ?6.793 trillion national budget for 2026 (with hundreds of billions of allocables and non-allocable unprogrammed funds) shall still be funded from foreign and domestic borrowings.

Population is rising while our GDP is one of the worst in ASEAN. Our per-capita income is well below that of Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Direct foreign investments to our country is one of the lowest in Asia. Foreign investors hate the corruption and crime situation in the Philippines. Tourists are diverting to Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia.

The year 2026 will most likely be one of our worst years in the economy and social development. The sufferings of the people shall be driven by too much politics, too many disasters and calamities, and rising poverty and social injustice. The people shall march in the streets led by the youth and the progressive, Church, and labor sectors. There will be a series of mass protests and demonstrations, rallies, strikes, and other concerted actions.

It will be a much more difficult life for the Filipinos in 2026. I hope I can be wrong in my dire predictions. I can only see dark clouds hovering in the horizon, I hope, the sun, the stars, and the moon are not far behind as we usher in the Year of the Horse.