Can China return to the days of Deng Xiaoping?

Every time I read geopolitical analysis of China, there seems to be two contrasting views of what is happening in that country. It also seems like there is no single analysis on how to assess the rule of Xi Jinping. 

Sometimes, we hear that Xi is the reincarnation of Mao Zedong and has near total power. At other times, some observers believe that Xi is on the verge of being ousted in a coup. 

There are also contrasting views on the state of China’s economy. One view is that China will overtake the United States before the end of this decade. Then there is the other view that China does not seem to be making any headway in its desire to overtake the US.

Personally, I believe that Deng Xiaoping, who introduced economic reforms and liberal policies beginning in the late 1970s, was the leader most responsible for China’s rise as a superpower. According to China analyst Jonathan Czin: “When Xi took the reins of the Chinese Communist Party in 2012, many observers inside and outside China were frustrated with the stalled reforms of his predecessor Hu Jintao. 

Most of the original supporters of Xi hoped that he would continue the market-oriented policies of Deng. They also hoped that he would continue to reduce state intervention in the economy and even allow more political freedom. It would seem from the readings about the early years of Xi that he seemed to be a reformer and pursued the reforms which had slowed down under Hu. 

All these expectations were the opposite of what actually happened. The reform era of Deng ended when Xi took power. Xi was able to take advantage of the weak leadership of his predecessor, who had also allowed corruption to become prevalent. According to Czin, Xi believed that China’s prosperity had made the CCP weak and soft and that core Communist beliefs were being threatened by the reforms of the Deng era.

According to another China scholar, Carl Minzner, the reign of Xi Jinping is best described as a counter-reformation which entailed “… stripping the Party down to its Leninist core of political and social control and rewiring it for neither revolution nor reform, but for a disciplined march toward technological-industrial and military might to enhance China’s geopolitical position.”

This counter reformation may ultimately end in weakening China’s economy because it sets aside the economic reforms that brought China from poverty to being an economic superpower. There are also risks from putting aside the collective rule that Deng Xiaoping had used. The one-man rule of Xi Jinping is reminiscent of the era of Mao Zedong. 

It should be remembered that throughout the 1990s and the early 2000s, China regularly registered double-digit GDP growth. It averaged over 10 percent GDP growth per year from 1992 when Deng launched his economic reforms, to 2012, the year Xi ascended to power. It was during this Deng era that saw the rise of China’s rapid modernization and massive infrastructure projects. Deng also launched a foreign policy that avoided direct confrontation with any other nation. That was the period when the Philippines did not see Chinese maritime vessels harassing Filipino fishermen in Philippine waters. 

One example of this economic change is that construction has dropped 70 percent since the takeover of Xi. This construction crash has been one of the causes of China’s very slow economic growth. It has also reduced domestic consumer consumption when the Chinese economy desperately needs more domestic consumption.

There was also radical change started by Xi Jinping when he took power. During his first term, he aggressively asserted the different territorial claims of China along its periphery. Xi suddenly claimed more than 3,000 acres of territory in the South China Sea as belonging exclusively to China. There are geopolitical observers who think that Xi believed that the time had come for China to take on the role and status of a superpower. 

Xi, however, has created new problems for himself and the Chinese Communist Party. After Deng Xiaoping took over from Mao Zedong, the CCP had institutionalized a process of peaceful transfer of power from one ruler to a successor. 

Xi has abolished term limits on the presidency and has weakened the powers of the vice president. It should be noted that autocratic regimes are usually vulnerable to the issue of succession. For example, this problem of succession is confronting other autocrats in the world like Putin and Trump. Even here in the Philippines, Duterte was not able to manage a successful succession process for his own rule. 

At the moment, Xi Jinping has gained confidence and global influence mainly because the United States under Trump is going through political turmoil and inconsistent economic policies. Xi Jinping has redoubled his efforts to bolster China’s position as a superpower. On the other hand, the United States under Trump has an inconsistent and incoherent global policy.

Personally, I hope that the rule of Xi Jinping will end soon and China will return to the days of Deng Xiaoping.