China’s succession: A path to war?

One of the major weaknesses of authoritarian governments is that the politics in the country is defined by one man. For as long as the ruler is able to maintain power and stability, the country is able to successfully thrive even economically.

One of the examples of this is Xi Jinping who assumed power in China in 2012 and has remained in complete control of his country. Xi has been able to suppress all forms of dissent and curb civil society in China. He has even been able to turn back the economic reforms which were introduced by Deng Xiaoping.

There are indicators, however, that the China elite has begun a tentative search for a leader to replace the 72-year-old chief. In any authoritarian regime, political succession is the most perilous period and it is expected that China will not be an exception. The history of China since the end of the second world war show that only one of Xi Jinping’s five predecessors stepped aside fully and willingly.

Mao Zedong exercised overwhelming power over China and the Communist Party. He ruled the country until the day he died. However, his anointed successor Hua Guofeng was able to hold on to power for only a few years before being replaced by Deng Xiaoping.

Only Hu Jintao gave up power voluntarily. The struggle for succession will be an important story for the Philippines and the rest of the world because it will affect China’s economy and foreign policy. Some geopolitical observers have already theorized that as Xi Jinping reaches the end of his term, it may increase his appetite for risk.

In certain areas like Taiwan and the South China Sea, it should be noted that Xi Jinping has publicly instructed his military to carry out a campaign against Taiwan by 2027. While there is no sign of significant effort to actually invade Taiwan, Professor Tyler Jost of Brown University said: “If he hears the succession clock ticking, he could become more willing to gamble on war.”

Unlike in democracies, in China, the struggle for political succession is not visible to the general public. This is the reason why the struggle for succession is often subjected to rumors. Early this year, for example, there was a rumor that Xi Jinping was on the verge of being pushed out of office allegedly by a group led by Hu Jintao. These rumors have not been taken seriously because Xi Jinping is in good health and expected to stay in power for as long as he is physically fit.

In terms of succession, Xi has a difficult dilemma to solve. Theoretically, Xi Jinping should select at this point someone relatively young who can carry his agenda forward for at least a decade. He could appoint his chosen successor to head the Communist Party Secretariat to prepare him to eventually take over. However, appointing a successor at this point might lead to a possible attempt for the successor to take over if Xi Jinping decides to stay for another decade.

The dilemma is that appointing an older heir could mean that the handpicked successor will not be able to carry Xi’s vision forward for very long, which could create uncertainty for the country. In the present situation, there is no logical successor in the seven-man Politburo Standing Committee. Should Xi Jinping suddenly pass away, the elevation of a weak successor could lead to a chaotic and even violent power struggle in China.

A struggle for successor could also tempt foreign powers to exploit possible chaos in China.

Any internal power struggle in China will definitely affect world order, since that country has increasingly decided to act as a superpower. This self-image of being a superpower has led China to a point where it has chosen more aggressive actions to impose its will, especially on neighboring countries.

Even as Trump’s erratic foreign policy has begun to weaken its international leadership, China has begun to become more aggressive in imposing its own brand of leadership in the world.

I was recently listening to a television interview of Ronald Llamas, a local political pundit. He was political adviser to then president Noynoy Aquino when China began to become more aggressive in the South China Sea. This marked a major deviation from Chinese policy of accommodation during the Deng Xiaoping era. According to Llamas, he asked a top Chinese official why China has decided to become more aggressive and the official’s answer was that it is because China was now a superpower.

The struggle for succession in China might also allow its armed forces to play a decisive role. During past successions, China’s military has become a powerful political tool. War has often served a useful political purpose during past successions. War can provide an opportunity to showcase the power of the New People’s Liberation Army.

The world, including the Philippines, must realize that a struggle for succession in China might also be a path to war.