An Asia-Pacific mutual defense treaty

Today the Asia Pacific region faces a growing threat from China. Presently, Asian nations have used mutual defense treaties as a defensive measure against this Chinese expansionist ambition. However, Beijing’s geopolitical aspirations remain unchanged.

China seeks to invade and conquer Taiwan, control the South China Sea, including the West Philippine Sea, and weaken US alliances and any possible resistance from Japan. If it succeeds, the result would be an Asia dominated by China with neighboring countries subordinate to Beijing's ambitions.

In 2023, CIA director William Burns reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping instructed his military “to be ready by 2027 to invade Taiwan.” However, Burns went on to say that many Chinese leaders have doubts whether they can accomplish this invasion.‘‘ There is no doubt that Beijing will not launch any attack that will ultimately come at an unacceptable cost. There is no doubt that mutual defense treaties with the United States are not sufficient. This is because the gap between American power and Chinese power is increasingly diminishing. Aside from the need for a new strategic alliance focused on confronting the increasing threat from China, there is also an increasing demand for reciprocity that gives the American partners a larger role in keeping the peace in this part of the world.

Last year, before taking office, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba warned: “The absence of a collective self-defense system like NATO in Asia means that wars are likely to break out.

Ely Ratner was assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs in the Biden administration. He recently wrote: “In the face of continued military modernization, true deterrence requires the will and capability that only a collective defense agreement can deliver. Such an alliance – call it the Pacific Defense Pact – would bind these countries that are currently most aligned and prepared to take on the China challenge together: Australia, Japan, the Philippines and the United States. Additional members can join as conditions warrant.

Historically, there was such an attempt, which was the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization or SEATO founded in 1954.  This was an alliance among Australia, France, New Zealand, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand, the United Kingdom and the United States. It was dissolved in 1977 from a lack of unity. However, times have changed, as the increasing threat from Chinese aggression is giving way to calls for a collective defense.

In the Philippines, the Armed Forces battled insurgents mainly in the southern part of the archipelago. Military investments and operations were focused on fighting Muslim rebels and the New People’s Army, an ideological insurgent group.

Today, the insurgency has weakened but an external threat has become larger and larger. The Chinese invasion of Philippine waters primarily in the West Philippine Sea has become this nation’s main security threat. Starting a decade ago, the Philippine military and navy have been undertaking modernization efforts and have reached out to allies like the United States, Japan and Australia for defense agreements.

China has also become a direct security threat to Japan. Like in the Philippines, Chinese incursions into areas surrounding Japan have become more frequent and now, have included more heavily armed vessels. The main area of contention is an area which Japan refers to as the Senkaku Islands and which China refers to as the Diaoyu Islands.

Australian Armed Forces have also encountered harassment from Chinese jets and warships. Earlier this year, Chinese naval vessels went around Australia and conducted live fire exercises in the Tasman Sea in the southern Australian region. China has also made security inroads with Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and other Pacific island countries. Australia‘s Foreign Minister said in 2024 that her country is now “in a state of permanent contests in the Pacific.”     ’

In a recent survey, 70 percent of Australians believe that China would become a serious military threat to their country.

Japan, the Philippines and Australia now recognize China as their primary and common threat. They also acknowledge that their security is intertwined with the whole region. For example, the Philippine Defense Secretary earlier this year said: “If something happens to Taiwan, inevitably, we will be involved.”

Former prime minister Shinzo Abe declared in 2021: “A Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency.”

The first steps towards organizing a NATO-like Mutual Defense Agreement have already begun. These four countries – Australia, Japan, the Philippines and the United States – have begun conducting naval, maritime and air force exercises in the South China Sea. They have begun to work together to modernize the Philippine military forces.

This proposed collective defense pact in the Asia-Pacific region should initially focus on defense. There will be no doubt that Beijing will publicly condemn this as increasing so-called “Cold War thinking.” The four countries should therefore be prepared for Chinese efforts to scuttle any attempt for a collective defense agreement in Asia.

This proposed Asia-Pacific Defense Treaty Organization must, sooner or later, become a reality because Chinese efforts at expansionism will never end.