Downhill

Weather will be the determinant of the size of tomorrow’s rallies. But the number of actual marchers is less significant. In this age of social media, all the seething happens online.

Most of the organized political groups involved in tomorrow’s rallies are trying very hard to diffuse focus of the outrage away from President Marcos Jr. This is because they are horrified Sara Duterte would rise to the presidency should the Marcos term pre-terminate for whatever reason.

Having lost key allies in the tumult over unbridled corruption, the Marcos presidency is increasingly reliant on the fear of Sara to somehow stay afloat. Such are the ironies of politics: the worst enemies sometimes function as indispensable crutches to cling on to power.

Sara has been wise to keep a lower profile while the nation burns over stolen public works funds. She is safely away from the fire and has time on her side.

Martin Romualdez was an important source of political support for Bongbong. He held the legislative majority in place – although not always through savory means. He managed the political operations to keep the opposition in the margins – mainly with funds that always seemed in excess.

Romualdez suffered from low popularity ratings. This seems to be the curse afflicting all previous Speakers of the House. To keep the political factions in line, he must be master of traditional politics.

The former Speaker, blamed for the immensity of the corruption going on, resigned before his disgraced chamber. In a nation governed by patronage politics, he played the game to the hilt. He suffered the consequences of that.

But beyond his role in regime maintenance, Romualdez projected the possibility of dynastic continuity. He seemed, unpopularity notwithstanding, the likely presidential candidate of the ruling coalition when 2028 comes around. Slim as his chances were, that possibility kept everyone in line. For as long as he was there, administration allies could cling to the hope that the good times will never end.

The flood control scandal, however, came like a flash flood. Martin Romualdez could not be rescued. Whatever political ambitions he might have nursed are now shattered. If ever he manages to rise from his political grave, that will be a true miracle.

Romualdez is not equipped with the requisites to do a Napoleon Bonaparte. He lacks the eloquence and the vision. Charisma is not one of his gifts. He can buy friends but cannot inspire broad alliances.

The nation is in one of its most demoralized moments. In these despairing conditions, people may rally around the new colorful charlatan that comes along, but not for another “nepo baby.” The moment is never seized by the bland.

With Romualdez knocked out of the game, Bongbong Marcos cannot foist the imminence of dynastic continuity. He does not have a political party of his own. He does not have a program of government political groups can adhere to. All he can do is to promise more patronage politics – and therefore require more grease for the clunky machine.

Seeing the leader in a weakened position, the political vultures around him will become increasingly more demanding. Bongbong Marcos will be pressed on all sides by erstwhile allies who expect gravy in exchange for loyalty. He will also be under pressure from populist groups who will demand more subsidies.

Some of these groups are marching tomorrow, denouncing a regime of corruption but not (yet) command responsibility from the President. They are happy at the possibility of holding Bongbong hostage: for such things as subsidies for rice and even fuel, legislated wage increases and a host of other demands that will screw the country’s fiscal position.

Bongbong probably aspires to reinvent his presidency, to rescue his government from the morass of corruption. But he has meager political capital to do that – and even less of the work ethic required for the task. Time is not his friend.

He sought the highest post mainly to rescue his father’s name. He will likely end his term failing in that single task. This is probably his biggest emotional burden.

From here on, the Marcos II presidency is going downhill. Both time and political capital are scarce. There might be will but not agility.

By this time, at this stage of an unfolding crisis, the country’s leader should be a screaming madman: issuing orders to all the enforcement agencies to use every legal means to punish the criminal syndicates that brought his government into disrepute. More heads should be rolling. All agencies must be put on anti-corruption footing.

In a word, Bongbong ought to be dictating the tempo of events, not just expressing sympathy for a citizenry that has been robbed. He must unleash our tax collectors on all those associated with the public works scandals. He must be the angry crusader redeeming our flawed political culture.

In political science, there is such a concept as “regime aging.” That happens when all the possible reasons for people supporting a particular brand of leadership begin to evaporate. That happens when the trust invested is lost and people feel betrayed.

My son, who lives and works abroad, texted me the other day asking if we are about to have another revolution. I texted back almost apologetically, saying we can only manage a slow burn.

Like a train that cannot crash because it has no momentum.