Robredo-Aquino in 2028

Three years is too far/too long or too near/too short, depending on age and/or perspective. In politics, especially Philippine politics, time is relative depending on how many relatives are running in the elections. Kidding aside, three years is just the right length of time to prepare for an election, and we should commend the framers of the Philippine Constitution for stretching the election to every three years instead of two years. The rationale was to minimize the social/economic disruptions and expenses that come with elections.

For business planning, it is usually a five- to 10-year economic horizon, and for long gestation projects and the national economy, there are 15 to 20 year plans. So, three years is actually for medium-term plans which are incorporated/updated in line with the long-term plans.

Philippine politics, which is in a developing democracy and economy, is in a constant flux with major repercussions in ideology and economic progress. The swing from a libertarian democracy to an autocracy up to the end of the martial law years, then to a resurgent people power democracy, then to a populist authoritarian government were regressive to the economy and destabilizing. Yet, the Philippines grew and moved forward economically and politically, although at less than the optimal rate enjoyed by our neighboring developing countries.

The BBM administration in the last three years has shown to be a pragmatic government devoid of the repressive strong-arm tactics of the Duterte administration. These have been welcomed by majority of the Filipino people, even with the legacy baggage of the elder Marcos regime and family reputation. The Duterte followers are probably holding on to the 35% of the electorate due to some geographic bailiwicks and alliances. But 65% of the people have moved on to a more accountable government and governance, which is the main reason the Robredo-Aquino candidacies in the 2028 presidential election will be formidable.

In 2028, 65% of the voters will be from the Gen Y and Gen Z age group, all of them below 45 years old, experiencing/expecting freedom, justice, and most of them online/social media savvy. These are the voters that got Aquino, Pangilinan and Mendoza the second, fifth and sixteenth place in the 2023 senatorial election. They were outspent 10 to 1 by the well-financed senatorial candidates, which means that 50% of the electorate were independent voters unswayed by massive propaganda/money and party politics. The votes of Aquino, Pangilinan, and Mendoza in 2025, and the 19 million votes of Robredo in 2022 will be the baseline votes in 2028 for the Robredo-Aquino presidential tandem, and will hold against other candidates.

At this time, the other possible presidential candidates in 2028 are Sara Duterte, Martin Romualdez, and Bong Go. Whether impeached or not Sara Duterte will run unless the conviction includes disqualification. She will be damaged goods after the trial whether acquitted or convicted, so a Bong Go presidential candidacy is a possibility. Romualdez on the other hand, while enjoying the super majority of the congressmen and many local officials, seems never to get traction with the national electorate. Maybe too identified as a traditional politician and lack of “charisma” is the issue. If he runs for the presidency, he is likely to get more votes from the Duterte/ Bong Go side than from the Robredo-Aquino team. So there is a possibility of Romualdez aligning with Robredo-Aquino.

There is a 70% probability that the Robredo-Aquino team will win in the 2028 presidential elections. So be it.