May 12 polls, the tyranny of number

The May 12, 2025 midterm polls shall be decided by Luzon alone. Whoever dominates Luzon wins nationally. Call it the tyranny of numbers but Luzon with 38 million voters shall dominate the 2025 elections, leaving Mindanao behind with only 16 million voters and Visayas with only 14 million. Luzon has 8 regions, Mindanao has 6 and the Visayas has only 4.

The famous Pareto Principle is apparently guiding the political strategists of the BBM senatorial candidates. They fully know that only 20 percent among the 18 regions of the Philippines shall produce 80 percent of the results. There are only 3 to 4 regions that can produce more than 30 to 35 million votes among the total of almost 69 million registered voters for May 12, 2025.

This could be the reason why BBM has chosen his senatorial bets all from Luzon because the total registered voters from the 8 Luzon regions already have more than 38 million registered voters. They include the Ilocos Region or region 1, the Cagayan Valley which is region 2, the Cordillera Administrative Region or CAR, the Central Luzon, region 3, the National Capital Region or Metro Manila, the Southern Tagalog or Region 4-A, the Mimaropa or region 4-B and the Bicol Region, region 5.

The registered voters in these regions are: 3,651,539 in Ilocos; 2,364,539 in Cagayan Valley, 1,111, 889 in CAR; 7,712,535 in Central Luzon, 7,562,858 in Metro Manila, 9,764,500 in Southern Tagalog; 2,064,160 for Mimaropa and 4,066,663 for Bicol.  The total voting population for the 8 regions in Luzon reached as high as more than 38 million voters. Even if Mindanao and Visayas combined cannot beat the Luzon votes. This explains why all 24 bets of BBM are from Luzon, including Manny Pacquiao who spends 90 percent of his time in his Forbes Mansion in Makati.

Visayas has regions four regions, namely regions 6, 7, 8 and the newly revived Negros Island Region. Region 6, Western Visayas comprising the whole island of Panay covers Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, Antique, and the island province of Guimaras. The Negros Island Region is, of course, composed of the much bigger and richer, Negros Occidental, and the smaller Negros Oriental and the smallest Siquijor. The NIR was created by former president Benigno Aquino III, abolished by president Duterte and just revived by president BBM

Region 6 has a total voting population of 3,145, 319, while the Negros Island Region covering three provinces has a combined voting strength of 3,069,836. Region 7, or Central Visayas, is now only the huge province of Cebu and its smaller neighbor, Bohol. Region 8 covers Samar, Northern Samar and Eastern Samar as well as Leyte, Southern Leyte and the island province of Biliran. Region 7 has 4,407,337 registered voters while region 8 has 3,264,935.  The combined voting strength of the four Visayan regions is only 14 million compared to Luzon's 38 million.

Mindanao has a total of 16 million registered voters, distributed as follows: Region 9, the 3 Zamboanga provinces has 2,881,715 voters, Region 10 or Northern Mindanao has 3,197,586, Region 11 or the 5 Davaos (Norte, Sur, Oriental, Occidental and de Oro) has a combined voting strength of 3,386,929. Region 12 or the Socssargen has 2,709,058; Region 13 or the Caraga has 1,889616 and the BARMM has a combined voting population of 2,368,404.  Thus, even if the whole Mindanao joins the whole Visayas, they will have only 30 million compared to Luzon's 38 million.

The biggest regions are all in Luzon: first is Region 4, comprising Calabarzon or Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal and Quezon with a whopping total voting strength of 9,764,170. Second is Central Luzon or Region 3 with 7,712,535. Third is the NCR or Metro Manila with 7,562,858. These three regions shall dictate the trend and whoever does well in these three regions shall surely land in the winning circle of 12 senators.

With these I predict that the most that the Duterte group can win this coming May 12 is 4, perhaps including Bong Go and Willy Revillame with Philip Salvador and Bato dela Rosa trying to catch up. The weakest links in the BBM team are Benhur Abalos (and it's a pity because he is very well qualified) and Camille Villar, because the people are too exasperated with big business trying to control politics. But Villar is the most moneyed and has the most ads. She may yet catch up and it has nothing to do with issues.

The bottomline is he who has the numbers to win, even the incompetent and the most unqualified. That is the unkindest cut of all.