We’re not ready for The Big One

Perhaps some of us still remember exactly where we were when the July 16, 1990 earthquake ripped through the country. I vividly remember where I was, on the road on my way to school. The driver suddenly stopped, saying the earth beneath us was shaking.

Thirty-four years later, there are again talks of “The Big One” hitting us sooner than later. Some people online are saying that we should be filling the cupboards with emergency items such as food or medicines for a few days.

Where’s this coming from?

Actually, it’s not just the Philippines that’s feeling the urgency. Recently, Japan’s Meteorological Agency issued its first-ever alert for a ”once-in-a-century megaquake along the Nankai Trough.”

“So many superlatives in one announcement — the past week has felt as if the whole nation lay awake in nervous anticipation of The Big One. The alert was lifted Aug. 15, but the agency has told people to remain vigilant. (Indeed, the one-week warning period was somewhat arbitrary to begin with.) Meanwhile, toilet paper has flown off the shelves, instant rice is backordered for months and everyone from local governments to Muji has issued disaster planning public service announcements.” (The Japan Times, Aug. 17, 2024).

Last April, Philippine authorities also warned of The Big One. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology said that the country could experience earthquakes stronger than magnitude 8.

“The Philippine Archipelago is actually compressed on both sides by the Eurasian Plate and the Philippine Sea Plate, pero yung Eurasian Plate almost immobile. Ang malakas na motion would be the Philippine Sea Plate. We are being pushed toward the northwest,” Phivolcs director Teresito Bacolcol was quoted as saying in a television interview.

He said the Philippine Trench in Samar is capable of generating magnitude 8.1 and when that happens, it could result in a killer tsunami. The Manila Trench, meanwhile, could generate an 8.3 magnitude earthquake.

Talks and warnings of The Big One especially on social media just keep on coming.

Is there a chicken little out there, causing unnecessary panic?

In any case, it’s important to be aware of what might come. We’re not just talking about The Big One but many other severe weather disturbances that might come our way including severe heat, drought, typhoons, etc.

Preparing for disasters

Last week, the Philippine Communication Society (PSC) hosted a talk on “Risk Communication and Disaster Preparedness.” This is especially timely following the onslaught of Super Typhoon Carina.

PSC president Dr. Elena Pernia, my professor way back during my university days at the UP College of Mass Communication, invited me to the event, with the theme “Pumapatak na naman ang ulan! – Conversations on Risk Communication and Disaster Preparedness.”

In her opening remarks, Dr. Pernia said that in the Philippines and throughout the world, severe weather disturbances have been very destructive. Thus, addressing the crowd of communicators, she said it’s important to communicate and discuss the risks of climate change and its impact.

One of the invited speakers is Office of Civil Defense (OCD) administrator Undersecretary Ariel Nepomuceno, who minced no words, saying that we’re not ready for The Big One.

This is because of the many challenges in organizing community disaster preparedness and management, he said in a video presentation.

The biggest challenge is that Filipinos don’t care much about disaster preparations, Nepomuceno said.

It’s not a priority compared to livelihood, employment, rising prices due to inflation and criminality. This isn’t surprising though, considering that a great number of Filipinos are busy eking out a living.

Another challenge is the constantly changing political leadership which affects the continuity of planning as well as the consistency of response teams, Nepomuceno said.

The ideal scenario, he said, is proper communication among all stakeholders.

For instance, he said, when old plans are updated, the responsible officers must be on their toes, and would-be victims must be aware of what to do and what the government has prepared for them.

According to the Metropolitan Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study, the West Valley Fault could indeed unleash The Big One, which is expected to hit Metro Manila and its nearest neighbors.

It could potentially cause the largest impact to the Metropolitan Manila area should it generate a large earthquake.

The 2002 to 2004 study estimated that The Big One will topple or damage almost half of all residential structures and up to 35 percent of public buildings in Metro Manila.

It could be an Armageddon of sorts with short circuits and gas leaks leading to fires and explosions, triggering a secondary disaster.

While the sky isn’t falling just yet, contrary to what Chicken Little has been saying in a mass hysteria, it is important to really be aware of what might come and what might happen.

There’s no telling for sure whether or not a big earthquake will strike us or when, but it is indeed important to prepare our homes and our communities so that somehow, someway we’re better prepared than we were yesterday or today.

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Email: [email protected]. Follow her on Twitter @eyesgonzales. Column archives at EyesWideOpen on FB.