It’s (always) the economy

It was US political strategist James Carville, then a senior aide to presidential candidate Bill Clinton, who famously said, “It’s the economy, stupid!” as he declared that the key to winning the 1992 election was providing solutions to address the pressing economic woes at the time.

It was true then and is still true now, whether it’s the Philippines or America or whichever country in the world – it’s always the economy indeed.

Thus, we must ask ourselves, “How is the economy doing now two years into the Marcos administration?”

By this time, I’m sure, President Marcos’ team is working to fill his State of the Nation Address with “big accomplishments” over the past two years.

The economy for sure will be part of that story.

Thus, on Tuesday, the Economic Journalists Association of the Philippines (EJAP), currently led by its president Jerome Morales of Reuters, organized a forum to deep dive into the different aspects of the economy ahead of the SONA. It was co-presented by conglomerate San Miguel Corp.

The theme of this year’s forum, held at the Ayuntamiento de Manila in Intramuros, was “Future-Proofing the Philippine Economy: Policies and Strategies” and it gathered members of the economic team of the Marcos administration, as well as representatives from the private sector.

Present were Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Eli Remolona Jr., Finance Secretary Ralph Recto, Socioeconomic Secretary Arsenio Balisacan, Budget Undersecretary Joselito Basilio and Special Assistant to the President for Investment and Economic Affairs Frederick Go.

Go tackled how to position the Philippines as a leading investment destination through responsive policies and much-needed reforms.

Last mile

Gov. Eli emphasized that the central bank is now in its “last mile” in addressing inflation but maintained the need to be more careful amid the risk of overdoing it.

He said there is more scope to finally ease key interest rates next month as keeping high rates for a longer period could temper economic growth.

I’m sure that Gov. Eli, who enjoys hiking and taking long walks, has the stamina for this last mile in the BSP’s continued fight against inflation. His efforts are paying off. As the latest results showed, inflation eased to 3.7 percent in June from 3.9 percent in May.

Finance Secretary Ralph Recto, meanwhile, provided an update on the government’s revenue collection measures to fund the country’s priority programs, according to EJAP’s social media post after the event.

During the panel, I also asked him if there would be adjustments in the privatization target, considering that the government has raised zero out of the P40-billion goal for the year. The country’s finance chief is unfazed and remains optimistic, saying that he hopes to even adjust the goal upward.

In all, Recto said there is a need to collaborate with the private sector to bring in investments and technology, create high-quality jobs and spur industry development.

Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan likewise highlighted “the need to diversify growth drivers, boost investments and improve export performance,” according to EJAP.

He noted, however, that there is a detrimental impact of the steady decline of the manufacturing sector’s share of the economy on the country’s poverty reduction efforts.

Usec. Basilio gave updates on the proposed P6.352-trillion 2025 National Expenditure Program.

Asked about the controversial confidential funds, Usec. Basilio assured the audience that there would be no special recipients of confidential funds in the 2025 budget as it would simply follow the same track as the 2024 budget.

It was good to hear economic managers provide updates on the economy.

Future-proofing

Maureen Simeon, EJAP board director and The STAR’s public finance reporter, wrapped up the forum in her closing remarks:

“As the old adage goes, ‘Great minds think alike.’ However, that quote is often cut short. The full quote goes, ‘Great minds think alike, though fools seldom differ.’

“During the open forum, Secretary Ralph Recto and Governor Eli Remolona somewhat differ on the pace of rate cuts for the near term. It only means that within the economic team, there are varying opinions, but healthy discussions. More often than not, healthy discussions lead to meaningful insights, and meaningful insights lead to the best policies.

“Our theme for this year’s economic forum is ‘Future-Proofing the Philippine Economy: Policies and Strategies.’ Even in the pandemic aftermath, there are a lot of risks that the economy faces. Externally, governments cower at the thought that the situation in Ukraine and attacks on Gaza would erase any and all gains that the world made in recovering from the pandemic. Internally, this country struggles with rising debt, supply issues, weather disturbances, among others.

“Whether the Marcos administration can overcome all of these challenges remains to be seen.

“The good thing is that the economic managers and the private sector have a plan. It all begins with healthy discussions, among policymakers, among communities, among sectors, among media. We need to keep expanding the platforms for meaningful discourse to find the most fit solutions to our nation’s troubles.”

I agree with Maureen. We should continue to discuss and dissect economic plans and see how best to grow the economy so that it benefits everyone.

At the end of the day, as James Carville told Bill Clinton’s campaign staff back in 1992, it’s the economy (that matters). And may I add, it’s always the economy.

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Email: [email protected]. Follow her on Twitter @eyesgonzales. Column archives at EyesWideOpen on FB.