An Indo-Pacific NATO on the horizon

Under the leadership of President Xi Jinping, China has resorted to a spate of bad behavior as it pursues its hegemonic ambitions. These bad behaviors include mobilizing pirate-like attacks against countries with whom it has territorial disputes, imposing economic coercion on countries with whom it has disagreements, leading poor nations into debt traps and steering cash-strapped countries into ceding their natural resources for quick cash, among others.

The Chinese Communist Party has made it a practice to disregard long-standing international laws whenever they stand in the way of its interests. Similarly, it ignores final court decisions handed down by international tribunals. This has resulted to thousands of diplomatic protests, court cases and economic sanctions slapped on China. But none have deterred it from its rogue ways. The communist nation continues to act like a venal opportunist who bullies and buys its way towards realizing its ambitions.

For every action there is a reaction. A collective opposition has developed among Indo-Pacific nations who oppose China’s scalawag behavior.

Although not official and likely unintentional, an Indo-Pacific equivalent of NATO is developing. For now, this burgeoning “Indo-Pacific NATO” is composed of bilateral and multilateral alliances that are neither organized nor consolidated. But this can change in a heartbeat. Member-countries can very well coalesce, collaborate and cooperate not only to deter China but also to blunt the destabilization campaigns of North Korea, Iran and Russia.

In the middle of these bilateral and multilateral alliances is the United States. The US is the champion of the international rules-based order and provider of arms and financial support to like-minded countries. Having an Indo-Pacific NATO works to America’s advantage too. Its formation will give the US a solid diplomatic footing in which to exert influence over the Indo-Pacific. In fact, a group of American legislators have already proposed a congressional bill to establish a fact-finding mission on the implications of an Indo-Pacific NATO.

What bilateral and multilateral alliances form the backbone of an Indo-Pacific NATO?

The first is the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) involving the US, Japan, India and Australia.

The QUAD was established in 2004 when the four nations engaged in maritime cooperation for disaster relief. It has since evolved to a group focused on maritime defense, specifically to address the Chinese threat. Since 2020, the QUAD has mounted annual naval exercises involving fighter combat missions, maritime interdiction and anti-submarine warfare.

And then there is the AUKUS Coalition involving the US, the United Kingdom and Australia. AUKUS was organized to improve the security and defense posture of the three nations.

Among AUKUS’s core objectives is to provide Australia with nuclear submarines to balance China’s fleet of 16 units. Australia aspires to operate five Virginia class submarines by the year 2030. The US and UK are capacitating Australia to manufacture its own fleet by the year 2040.

Beginning 2027, the HMAS Stirling naval base in Perth will host a rotation of nuclear submarines from the three nations. HMAS Stirling is within striking distance to the South China Sea and Indian Ocean.

The third alliance is JAROKUS involving Japan, South Korea and the US. JAROKUS is a historic alliance considering that Japan and South Korea have both set aside their historical differences to form this coalition. JAROKUS is a security pact that cooperates on matters of defense.

Established in August 2023 in Camp David, JAROKUS has already conducted joint naval and aerial exercises in Jeju island last January. The exercises included simulations using a US aircraft carrier and fighter jets from the three partner nations. The exercises intentionally mirrored China’s naval exercises in the Taiwan Strait.

Last April, a trilateral summit was held involving the US, Japan and the Philippines. At the heart of the summit were discussions on security, economic and technological cooperation. A $100-billion investment package was committed to the Philippines to strengthen its economy and military. A stronger Philippines means a stronger line of defense in the first island chain.

The trilateral summit cements the partnership of the three countries, each having either a mutual defense treaty or defense alliance between them. In 2023, the Philippines granted the US access to nine military bases in strategic areas. This has given the US a geographical advantage over the Strait of Taiwan and South China Sea.

Vietnam and the US also have a security cooperation agreement between them, as does Indonesia and the US. Hanoi has held 12 bilateral security discussions with Washington, with the former receiving a $104-million weapons grant. For its part, Indonesia signed a defense cooperation agreement with the US in 2022.

Meanwhile, Singapore granted the US access to its Changi naval base. Changi is located by the Strait of Malacca, an important sea lane where the bulk of Chinese trade traverses.

Although the mutual defense treaty no longer exists between the US and Taiwan, the US maintains a significant defense relationship with the island state under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979. The TRA commits the US to provide Taiwan with arms to maintain its capacity to resist security threats

America’s defense alliances with the Philippines, Japan, Australia, India, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore and Taiwan serve as the strong wall of deterrence against China’s ambitions and destabilizing campaigns. It effectively balances Beijing’s dominion over the region.

Will these alliances evolve into an Indo-Pacific NATO?

There is no initiative in the immediate horizon except for a fact-finding mission to study its viability. However, the probability increases exponentially if and when China invades Taiwan and/or increases its military aggression in India, the West Philippine Sea and the East China Sea. Like I said, for every action, there is a reaction.

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Email: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @aj_masigan