Opposition options for the 2025 elections

The resignation of Sara Duterte as secretary of the Department of Education and the dissolution of the UniTeam have sparked much speculation on the consequences on the political landscape, especially for the 2025 senatorial elections.

The withdrawal of Sara Duterte was already expected, especially after the First Lady’s tirade against her for her behavior during the Duterte-sponsored rallies against the Marcos administration.

The talk among political pundits now is the effect of this split on the forthcoming senatorial and local elections next year. The first speculation is whether the Duterte forces have sufficient resources and the national political machinery to field a complete senatorial ticket and congressional candidates in all the different districts. Then, in order to be a national force, they would have to field candidates in all the provinces, cities and municipalities. While the only group at this stage that can field these many candidates is the Marcos political force, the main focus will be on the senatorial elections.

Among the present senators, the known Duterte allies that are presumed to be running for reelection next year are Bato de la Rosa, Bong Go and Francis Tolentino. De la Rosa has said that he intends to stay loyal to the Duterte camp, citing a debt of gratitude as his motivation.

Bong Go, on the other hand, was criticized by Davao City Mayor Sebastian Duterte for his silence on many issues affecting Davao City and the Duterte family. However, Bong Go is expected to remain loyal to the former president. The big question mark is what the ultimate political choice of Tolentino will be in the coming election. It will be remembered that Tolentino was appointed MMDA chairman by then president Noynoy Aquino. He was initially in the senatorial slate of the Liberal Party for the 2019 elections. He was suddenly removed from the slate purportedly because of a scandalous party he organized for the political leaders of the Liberal Party. He then transferred to PDP under whose banner he won.

While I am fairly certain that Bong Go and Bato de la Rosa will run on whatever ticket Duterte organizes, I am not sure what Tolentino’s final political decision will be.

The other possible candidates for the Duterte senatorial slate are Cong. Pantaleon Alvarez, Harry Roque, Salvador Panelo and Davao City Mayor Sebastian Duterte.

The more interesting question is the direction the Liberal Party and its allies will take for the midterm elections. There are two possible directions for this group. The first one is to take advantage of the Duterte-Marcos split and form their own senatorial slate. The second possible choice is to go into a temporary coalition with the Marcos camp. I do not see an option of this opposition group forming a coalition with the Duterte camp because of the persecution and harassment experience of this group during the Duterte years.

The opposition group has several potentially strong senatorial candidates, which can be led by former senators Kiko Pangilinan, Bam Aquino, Leila de Lima and the brilliant activist lawyer Chel Diokno. In fact, in the last senatorial election, Risa Hontiveros won as the lone oppositionist candidate. The speculation is that Pangilinan and Aquino could also have won if they had run for the Senate too. Pangilinan instead ran for vice president and Aquino concentrated on being the campaign manager of Leni Robredo.

Leni Robredo has publicly stated that she has decided for a local position either in Naga or Camarines Sur. If she had chosen to run for the Senate, then this would have been a powerful senatorial ticket. However, her decision should be honored and respected by everyone.

Aside from the powerful lineup of Pangilinan, Aquino, de Lima, Diokno, the other potential candidates of the opposition are Trillanes, Ping Lacson, Iloilo city Mayor Treñas, Agot Isidro.

There are those who are saying that the opposition should accept that it lacks the resources to run a national campaign and should seriously consider an alliance with the Marcos camp. This may not be palatable to many groups in the opposition camp who are ideologically opposed to any alliance with other political groups. However, in the event of an alliance between the Marcos and the former Robredo group, this would make a powerful political combination.

This alliance would be beneficial to the present administration since it would spell the political end of its main rival, the Duterte camp. For the opposition, the benefit is that it would ensure the resources that they do not presently have. It could also mean that the victory of such highly deserving candidates like Chel Diokno and Leila de Lima could more or less be assured.

The presence of senators like Diokno and de Lima in the Senate would be a necessary balance against the antics of some of the present senators like Robin Padilla and Lito Lapid.

I would be interested in hearing from my readers which of the two directions they recommend for the opposition. Let me know through. [email protected]