Echoes

There are not-so-faint echoes of the 2022 Philippine elections in what happened in Indonesia last Wednesday.

Although the official results will not be released until March 20, it appears Prabowo Subianto has won by a landslide. The normally reliable independent exit surveys give him 60 percent of the vote in a three-way contest. He leads the second strongest candidate by about 33 percentage points. There will likely be no need for a runoff election which happens when no candidate garners 50 percent plus one.

Prabowo was considered the front-running candidate. But the margin of victory astounded even his own supporters.

The winning candidate spent years trying to play down his controversial past and repackage himself before young voters. The Indonesian electorate is very young. Many of the voters are too young to remember Prabowo as a hot-tempered special forces officer alleged responsible for the torture and disappearance of pro-democracy activists during the waning years of the Suharto dictatorship.

Prabowo was not just an officer in Suharto’s military. He married one of the ousted dictator’s daughters.

The crafty former military officer invested years repackaging himself. He first presented himself as a presidential candidate in 2004.

Through a sustained social media campaign, Prabowo repackaged himself as a cuddly grandfather. Surveys conducted before the elections show that he has strongest support among the young voters: Indonesians who did not have to live through the repression of the Suharto years.

This social media campaign is similar to the one used to repackage the Marcos Sr. years and present this period as one of social progress. Young Filipino voters saw the Marcos Sr. period as one of achievement and competent governance, compared to the weak leadership and corruption that characterized the period after the Edsa Revolution.

Human rights groups, who tend to have long memories, raised alarms about Prabowo’s record. The candidate was in fact briefly blacklisted from entering the US because of the accusations against him. He was never charged, however.

The Prabowo campaign studiously avoided recalling the candidate’s past. Some of the better known pro-democracy leaders who were jailed in the 90s even took up senior roles in the Prabowo campaign.

Instead, Prabowo presented himself as the logical continuation of the pragmatic economic leadership of Joko Widodo. The outgoing president enjoys record high approval ratings.

A law setting an upper age limit for candidates was removed during the Widodo administration – making it possible for the 72-year-old Prabowo to seek the highest office. It is believed that, although his party fielded its own candidate, Widodo quietly supported Prabowo.

Indonesians frown on the sitting president overtly supporting a candidate to succeed him. They do not want government resources used for partisan political activity. But the comfortable relations between Widodo and Prabowo was never a secret.

Prabowo, in fact, took in Widodo’s son Gibran as his vice presidential candidate. Young and considered inexperienced, Gibran nevertheless offset whatever concern voters might have about Prabowo’s age and disposition. It quietly assured voters that the popular but term-limited Widodo will continue to influence the course of policy-making. Should something happen to the apparently ailing Prabowo, he will be succeeded by Gibran – and, by extension, his father.

In his ten years as president of the of the world’s third largest democracy and fourth most populous country, Widodo oversaw the rapid modernization of his sprawling, archipelagic country. The Widodo administration invested heavily in infra and his economic policies aimed to increase his country’s value-added in its raw material exports.

Widodo’s pro-market policies brought prosperity to Indonesia. The Southeast Asian giant is considered poised to emerge as one of the world’s most important economies. Prabowo has committed to pursuing the same development strategy. This, more than his controversial past, convinced Indonesian voters to support his candidacy.

Critics of Prabowo fret that, once in power, his volatile temper could come into play. They fear he could reverse – or at least limit – Indonesia’s democratic course. Such concerns are speculative at best. At his age and rather scarce energy, it is likely that the incoming president will follow the path of least resistance: the policy current initiated during the Widodo period.

It is, of course, too early to say if the partnership between Prabowo and Gibran will endure in power. It is far too easy to casually anticipate it will go the rocky course of the “unity team” of Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte.

Joko Widodo will likely withdraw to the sidelines after his successful presidency, comforted by the adulation of a grateful nation. That is his personality. He is mild in his manners and reserved in his speech.

In a word, it is unimaginable that Widodo will threaten his successor with a movement to cause Java’s secession from Indonesia. If he ever does that, he will be dismissed as a pathetic crackpot.

Instead, we are likely to see a quiet transition with much continuity in policies. That is what the people voted for. That is what will happen.

With continuity, Indonesia will proceed with its emergence as a robust economy and, thus, an influential voice in international affairs. The rest of Southeast Asia treats Indonesia as a benign elder brother – one that does not use its power to bully its neighbors.

Indonesia’s continued emergence will be good for us. We have always had healthy cooperative relations with the emerging giant south of our archipelago. There is no reason to doubt the continuation of our partnership.