Escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait

Xi Jinping was elected to another five-year term as president of China together with his position as head of the Chinese Communist Party and head of the Military Commission. This makes him the supreme ruler. No one in China has as much power since the days of Mao Zedong.

In his acceptance speech, Xi said that China’s armed forces must become “a wall of steel.” He also called for “more quickly elevating the armed forces to world-class standards.” He reiterated his objective to ensure the return of Taiwan to the mainland.

Many geopolitical observers believe that there are signs that Xi Jinping is preparing China for a possible conflict. It is evident that national security has become the overriding priority of the Chinese government. According to the Financial Times: “No fewer than 16 aspects of the central government’s work are now officially classified as matters of national security, including politics, economics, cyberspace, ecology and others… Beijing’s main focus is no longer economic expansion but rather fostering reliance and resilience in an environment of more modest growth.”

In the Philippines, the Chinese embassy has warned that granting the United States greater access to Philippine military bases is part of a plot to contain the growing influence of China. According to a statement released by the Chinese embassy: “…it is plain and simple that these moves are part of the US efforts to encircle and contain China through its military alliance with this country.”

The embassy was obviously referring to the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) which allows American forces to have access to nine Philippine bases.

Recently, the heads of Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States met in San Diego to announce a new alliance called AUSUKUSA. Its first step is to arrange for Australia to purchase nuclear submarines from the United States and the United Kingdom.

All of these recent events have raised again the danger that this mutual animosity and suspicion will escalate into conflict. If there is going to be any escalation to possible conflict, the immediate trigger will be the issue of Taiwan.

The second possible area of conflict is in the South China Sea where China has illegally transformed reefs in Philippine territory into military and naval bases.

Under Xi Jinping, China has become more expansionist and aggressive. The threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan has become more real when Russia invaded Ukraine despite the original consensus that this was not possible.

For the last 70 years, China and the United States have managed to avoid a disastrous conflict over Taiwan. However, Xi’s recent strong language has led some observers to believe that this peace may not last much longer.

I personally believe that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not possible in the near future.  If Xi’s vision is to make China a leading power in the world, then the imperatives of seizing Taiwan would be catastrophic for China’s future. It would trigger other Asian countries to arm and coalesce to prevent Chinese domination. According to Jude Blanchette, the chair of Chinese Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, invading Taiwan would jeopardize Beijing’s access to global finance, data and markets. These would be ruinous for a country dependent on imports of oil, food and semi-conductors.

He also said: “Even assuming Beijing could successfully invade and hold Taiwan, China would then face countless problems.  Taiwan’s economy would be in tatters, including its globally invaluable semi-conductor industry. Untold civilians would be dead or injured, and those who survive the initial conflict would be violently hostile to the invading military power. Beijing would likely face unprecedented diplomatic blowback and sanctions. Conflict just off China’s eastern shoreline would incapacitate one of the world’s busiest maritime corridors, bringing with it disastrous consequences for China’s own export-driven economy. And of course, by invading Taiwan, China would be inviting military engagement with the United States and perhaps, other regional powers including Japan. This would be the very definition of a Pyrrhic victory.”

Although Xi has repeatedly said he wants to be the leader who finally annexes Taiwan, the cost of an invasion remains too high. China’s hope that economic reasons can induce Taiwan to seek some kind of union with Beijing is negligible because of Taiwan’s economic success and Xi’s economic mismanagement. A forced unification is therefore not foreseeable in the near future.

The most probable scenario I see is that Xi Jinping might attempt to blockade Taiwan. This approach will escalate into conflict if the United States tries to break this blockade.

The Philippines might be forced to be involved in breaking the blockade if China uses its bases in Philippine waters to help in the blockade. If this is the case, the US will be forced to move against these bases. This is the scenario that I fear the most. It could start with a blockade and the US and possibly Japan trying to break the blockade. China would then be forced to escalate the conflict. It might reach a stage when none of the competing powers would be willing to retreat from their adversarial positions. This is how most wars start, from a minor adversarial incident escalating to a violent conflict – even a world war.

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