How imminent is war in the Taiwan Strait? How will it unfold?

Following my article last month on the rationale, consequences and worst-case scenario of Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei, I received numerous emails asking me to expound on China’s strategy towards Taiwan.

For those unaware, China’s Anti Secession Law, passed in 2005, holds the Chinese Communist Party duty-bound to reclaim Taiwan. In fact, Article 8 of the statute mandates the Chinese government to use military force if all peaceful means are exhausted.

While we all hope that a peaceful compromise will be reached, tensions continue to escalate and the possibility of armed conflict looms. China is presently conducting live military drills in nearby Fujian province and along Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).

The Philippines has much to be concerned about for two reasons. First, our proximity to Taiwan (the Southern tip of Taiwan is a mere 100 kilometers from our Babuyan Islands) coupled with our Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States make us both a target of China and vulnerable to collateral damage.

Second, if Taiwan and its allied forces fail, the effect on the Philippines will be calamitous. See, China aspires to dominate Asia in the political, military and economic spheres – and to do that, it needs to control the First Island Chain of which the Philippines is a part. Whoever has military control over the First Island Chain gains dominion over the entire Asian region. Thus, a Chinese invasion of the Philippines cannot be ruled out if Taiwan falls to Chinese hands.

This is why readers are invested in this issue – as they should rightfully be. We will do well to understand China’s war strategy.

David Lague, a military strategist, geopolitical analyst and investigative journalist for Reuters, published a report entitled “T-Day, the Battle of Taiwan.” The report details how the conflict will likely unfold.

First, we must understand that an invasion of Taiwan works against Chinese interest. With the severe impact of the property crisis and the COVID lockdown on the Chinese economy, the last thing China needs is an expensive war and the economic sanctions that go with it. What it wants is to reclaim Taiwan as quickly as possible, with the least resources expended and least damage inflicted to all parties.

To this end, it has resorted to intimidation. The idea is to provoke Taiwan into voluntarily surrendering. This explains why round-the-clock war drills are being conducted in Taiwan’s ADIZ and areas dangerously close to the mainland.

But what will happen if Taiwan does not succumb to intimidation? This is where the Matsu and Kinman islands come to play. Matsu is nine kilometers away from the Chinese mainland while Kinmen island is six kilometers away. They are geographically closer to China than they are to Taiwan. They have a population 13,000 and 130,000, respectively.

According to Lague, the Chinese strategy involves surrounding these islands with warships, submarines and sand dredgers to effectively isolate them from the Taiwanese coast guard. Think of it like a military garrison. Beijing will subsequently announce that no commercial or military flight can approach the island without permission. Those who enter the airspace without clearance face the risk of attack.

The garrison will result to three possible outcomes. First, the Taiwanese people, fearing for the wellbeing and security of friends and family in the islands, will force their government to surrender. Second, Taiwanese forces will force its way into the island to provide basic essentials to its residents. In which case, they will likely be attacked and outgunned. Third, Taiwan will seek the help of the US to break the garrison.

Should Taiwan go the third route, China will likely proceed to occupy Matsu and Kinman islands. It will also launch what it calls its “Custom Quarantine Strategy.”

As American forces make their way to the Taiwan Strait from its bases in Guam and Okinawa, China will surround the Taiwanese mainland with its huge naval fleet. The idea is to gain control of Taiwan’s surrounding waters and airspace. This way, neither ships nor planes can go in or out of Taiwan.

By putting Taiwan on “quarantine,” China can leverage on its three weak points. First, Taiwan’s army is one-tenth the size of China’s and so is its naval fleet. If Taiwan even attempts to deploy them in attack, China can easily overcome them before it makes it through the Taiwan Strait. Second, on the seabed of the Taiwanese Strait is where communication and fiber optic lines are laid. China can cut off Taiwan from the world by simply disabling these assets. Third, 90 percent of Taiwan’s gas and oil requirements are imported. By surrounding waters, China can block Taiwan’s supply.

But Taiwan has prepared contingencies. Its fuel silos are now good for 138 days. It has satellite communication on standby. Most importantly, America and her allied forces are prepared with counter offensive strategies to break the Chinese blockade.

A confrontation to break the blockade will involve the use of heavy artillery. This will mark the start of war.

Again, the Reuters’ paper emphasizes that armed conflict is the last option for China. It still hopes that Taiwan will surrender by intimidation.

Regaining control of Taiwan via armed conflict only serves the interest of the political Communist Party of China and no one else. The Chinese people will lose their global goodwill and suffer economic repercussions; the Taiwanese people will lose their sons, sovereignty and democratic way of life; the allied forces will lose the financial and human cost of war and the rest of the world will lose from economic disruption.

This is why the world is urging the Communist Party of China to live with the status quo. The status quo buys peace and the continued prosperity of the world.

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Email: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @aj_masigan