Governor Gwen Garcia versus Ace Durano
One of the most excitingly-awaited fights in the Philippine local political scenes is this one in Cebu, involving a very strong incumbent who is a dynamic political leader and a very passionate and focused campaigner, belonging to a political family from the south, Governor Gwendolyn F. Garcia, on the one hand, and a very worthy challenger, former tourism secretary Ace Durano, coming from a well-entrenched political clan in the north.
This will be a classic clash between the south and the north. Being a southerner myself, I am biased. My bold prediction is that for the nth time, the south will again triumph against the north. I have done my homework and did my research based on historical and empirical data. I made an analysis, town by town and city by city. I could be wrong and my scientific analysis may have its flaws, but most of the time, I have been proven right by the outcomes of most of my predictions. Of course, in fairness. Governor Gwen's political record is quite formidable.
In 2004, Governor Gwen, eldest child of Governor Pablo Garcia and Judge Ezperanza Fiel Garcia, won as governor succeeding her father, with a plurality of 7,000 votes. In 2007, she was reelected with an unprecedented lead of half a million votes. In 2010, Governor Gwen won over another southerner, the current Vice Governor Davide for a third and final term by a vote of about 100,000. That means that vice governor Junjun is the only one who can really beat her if he has the money and the grassroots organization of the Gracias.
I strongly believe that Vice Governor Hilario G. Davide III will most probably be reelected. In fact, in many towns last 2019, he got more votes than governor Gwen Garcia. But Ace Durano will have a very, very hard climb. Ace will give Gwen a good fight, but in the end, the incumbent shall win. In the 1st District, as long as the alliance between the Garcias and the Gullases can hold, the incumbent governor will defeat Ace Durano from Talisay City down to Sibonga in the south. In the 2nd District, although this is the turf of Vice Governor Davide, last elections Agnes Magpale lost heavily to Gwen Garcia.
The 3rd District will deliver to Governor Garcia a very strong victory. She used to be the representative representing this district when she was elected deputy speaker during the time of Speaker Bebot Alvarez. Today, this is represented by her brother Pablo John. During the last gubernatorial elections, Pablo John was defeated by the late Sonny Osmeña in Toledo City but Governor Gwen won over Agnes Magpale by a comfortable margin. The 4th District is controlled by the Salimbangons and for sure the governor will win here, except only in Bogo City.
If Ace is confident about the 5th District, incumbent congressman Duke Frasco will give him a run for his money. If Ace is confident about the 7th District because Peter John Calderon is his blood kin, he should watch out. This is the home of Governor Gwen. Dumanjug will go for the iron lady from this town. Governor Gwen will still win in the 6th District. And so, how shall Ace Durano recover from all these handicaps? Ace is a good man, but the better one is a woman. Gwen will be the winner. Mark my words.
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