Endemic

This virus may never become extinct. It will continue to linger for years, maybe even generations. Pandemics never really die.

The “Spanish flu” swept around the globe in 1918 and infected millions before it began to wane three or four years later. It is estimated that this pandemic killed 50 million worldwide.

In the century thereafter, the flu virus in its various mutations continued to infect and kill. Because the flu virus keeps on mutating, it is recommended that we take flu shots every year. Each time, the vaccine is adjusted to match the new mutations.

Scientists are expecting new pathogens to evolve as human civilization adds more pressure on the natural world.

If the US is the country that gives us a glimpse of a post-pandemic future, then the “new normal” is not very reassuring.

Since January, the US has mounted the largest vaccination program in history. To date, over 351 million inoculations have been administered. Well over half of Americans are fully vaccinated – which should, by WHO standards, bring on some form of “population protection.”

Today, the US is in the midst of yet another surge in infections. The spike has been severe. It is driven by the Delta variant of the coronavirus. Over the past week, epidemiologists have identified a Lambda variant originating from Peru and spreading in the US.

There is no authoritative study yet that might tell us if the Lambda variant is more transmissible or deadlier. We do not know yet if it is resistant to the available vaccine varieties we have developed.

Joe Biden calls this surge in infections a “pandemic of the unvaccinated.” A large section of the US population, driven by distrust of science or by political affiliation, resists vaccination. Meanwhile, the more contagious Delta variant quickly spreads in the communities. At the latest tally, there are 100,000 new US infections a day.

Trump believers such as Florida Governor de Santis are certainly to blame for the escalating infections and rising death toll despite the universal availability of vaccines. He has blocked new mask mandates and other health protocols recommended by the experts – and all to gain a political lock as the New Trump. The state of Florida accounts for a third of all new infections in the US.

But there is a frightening turn in the rising infection rates in the US. More and more children are being brought to the hospitals. Children are not included in the vaccination program. Doctors have found increasing frequency of inflammation of internal organs in children infected by COVID-19.

In many localities, mask mandates have been restored. Private companies make vaccination a requirement for work. But the sharp rise in infections continues.

We can only hope this will not be the experience of the developing countries that are only now beginning to vaccinate their populations. But it seems vaccination may fall short of being the final solution to this pandemic.

Epicenter

The epicenter of the pandemic, however, has now moved to Southeast Asia, our home region.

Driven by the Delta virus, infection rates rose sharply in Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam. If our lockdown takes the wind out of rising infections, we could yet avoid joining this unfortunate club.

Thailand and Vietnam has held off buying foreign vaccines, confident their own pharmaceutical industry could come up with locally produced vaccines. That is not happening in time to prevent the spread of the Delta variant.

The calamitous infection rates in Indonesia, despite comparatively higher rates of vaccination, have been going on for many weeks now with no respite in sight. The populous country has, comparatively, a weaker health care system.

We do not know exactly what is happening in Myanmar. The country’s doctors collectively protested the military coup that happened there. Since then, they have become targets of political persecution. Many hospitals in the country now lack medical personnel.

Internal political turmoil does not dispose the military regime to properly confront the pandemic. There are now insinuations the country’s military rulers, who have demonstrated their capacity for brutality, are using the pandemic to depopulate rebellious communities.

The situation in Myanmar has been cause for grave concern among other members of the ASEAN. The regional grouping has appointed a senior diplomat to inquire about conditions pertaining in that sad country. The diplomat asked for full access and the Burmese military rulers have not yet conceded to that.

The Philippines has blocked travel from our ASEAN neighbors as part of the border controls to prevent entry of infected persons. We know, from the experience of the past year, that this will not guarantee the deadly variant could be kept out.

Besides, the Delta variant is already here. Our limited genome lab capabilities prevent us from tracking the full extent of its spread. But there is no other explanation for the recent wave of infections other than community spread is happening.

The current lockdown of the National Capital Region and several other provinces throws off our timetable for economic recovery. The NEDA estimates an economic loss of P150 billion for each week that movement is restricted in the Metro Manila area. That estimate should now be revised, considering several other areas have been added to the ECQ list.

By the end of this month, we expect to fully vaccinate over one in five of the target population. By September, we should have enough vaccines to consider including 12- to 17-year-old Filipinos in the inoculation programs.

But what we observe in the US restrains our hopefulness.