Elections in the world’s leading democracy

I have been keenly following the 2020 US elections. It looks like former Vice President Joe Biden and California Senator Kamala Harris will be elected as the new president and vice president of the US.

Background

In February 2020, President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence were a 70 percent odds-on favorite to win a second term.

Meanwhile, former Vice President Biden, who was the 2019 front runner for the Democratic party presidential nomination, was underperforming in the early primaries and caucuses of New Hampshire, Iowa and Nevada. But his political fortunes abruptly changed on the auspicious leap year day of Feb. 29, 2020 when, with the support of House of Representatives majority whip Jim Clyburn, he convincingly won the South Carolina primary.  That began his climb toward clinching the Democratic nomination in August. Still Biden faced an uphill battle against a well-funded incumbent.

Enter the COVID-19 pandemic which drastically changed the political equation.

To be fair, the Trump administration acted decisively in combating the virus by banning flights from China and subsequently, Europe. Yet it downplayed the severity of the situation and health risks of contracting COVID. It also failed to emphasize the basic need for the wearing of face masks and observing social distancing.

The numbers of those infected, hospitalized and who unfortunately passed away because of the virus speak for themselves. With around 4 percent of the world’s population, the US accounts for more than 20 percent of the global COVID-19 cases. A comparison with the performance of South Korea in handling the pandemic is illustrative.  Both countries reported their first case on Jan. 20, 2020. As of Oct. 30, the US with a population of 328 million suffered 229,000 deaths while South Korea with a population of 55 million logged just 500 fatalities.  Using the South Korean percentage, US deaths should only be in the 3,000 range.

With a second wave of almost 100,000 cases in the US on Oct. 30, the primary campaign issue remains to be: “Covid, Covid, Covid!”

The path to 270

With 538 electoral votes up for grabs, 270 is the holy grail. Unlike the Philippines where citizens directly and separately elect the president and vice president, Americans choose electors who are committed to vote for certain candidates. The system was put in place by the founding fathers of the 1789 US Constitution to uphold federalism and protect less populated states from domination by the larger states. Critics of the electoral college point to an indirect election methodology that provides disproportionate voting power to certain voters. Incidentally, the electoral college has elected the candidates who received the most popular votes nationwide except in four elections: 1876, 1888, 2000 and 2016.

Biden/Harris has several ways to achieve the 270 goal. With an almost certain 220 to 230 electoral votes in the bank, their campaign is looking to reclaim the rust belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and re-establish the blue wall. Or Biden/Harris can pick up the votes from the traditional battle ground state of Florida to cross the 270 threshold or get them from the new toss-up states of Arizona, North Carolina and Iowa. Even the traditional red states of Georgia, Ohio and even vote-rich Texas are surprisingly in play this election.

In contrast, Trump/Pence has a very narrow path towards victory. Not only is the campaign having difficulty holding on to the states it won in 2016, it is only focusing on two relatively small states (Minnesota and Nevada) where it has a statistical chance to flip and turn red. Yet the Trump rallies continue to draw large crowds. It is relying heavily on polls showing that many Republicans prefer to vote on Election Day and the GOP’s elaborate get-out-and-vote ground game to once again pull off an upset on Nov. 3.

High voter turnout and enthusiasm is contagious and strengthens democracy. Various quality surveys show that the Democratic ticket enjoys strong support from suburban women, college educated whites and people of color. Because of COVID fears, a majority of senior citizens seems to favor the Democrats as well. It seems that Biden’s main campaign themes calling for unity and decency have resonated.

The approximate 60 percent voter turnout in 2016 will almost certainly be topped in 2020. The final number is expected to be in the high 60’s, which will be the highest rate of participation in over a century. As of Oct. 31, over 90 million Americans have voted early – in person, mailed in or dropped in their ballots. This is close to 70 percent of the total 2016 voter turnout.

I served as the Philippine observer during the 2016 US elections. At that time, most political pundits in Washington DC believed that Hillary Clinton was going to win. She did capture a national popular mandate of close to 3 million votes. But by a slim 77,000+ votes (44,000+ votes in Pennsylvania, 22,000+ votes in Wisconsin and 10,000+ votes in Michigan), she lost the electoral college 304 to 227. The Trump campaign strategically targeted vulnerable counties to win these three states.

But election 2020 is different in several respects. First, there is the higher turnout and enthusiasm, particularly among the millennial and generation Z voters.  Second, while President Trump’s demeanor and style continue to energize his political base of supporters, he also has fired up those who are opposed to him, including disaffected Republicans.  Third, President Trump is no longer a political outsider and has a track record that he can be judged against.

Flipping the Senate

With a strong up-ballot performance, the Democrats are also poised to retake a Senate majority. Currently trailing 53-47, the Democratic challengers are leading in Arizona and Colorado and have a good chance to win in Maine, North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia (whose two seats are in play). The Democrats are forecasted to lose their one seat in Alabama.

Meanwhile, the House of Representatives under Speaker Nancy Pelosi is also projected to add another 15 to 25 Democrat seats to their current 232-197 majority.

“Packing” the Supreme Court

When the iconic liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away last Sept. 18, President Trump and the Republican-controlled Senate quickly moved to fill up her seat. They did the latter notwithstanding their own refusal, after the death of conservative Justice Antonin Scalia in February 2016, to take up President Obama’s nomination of Merrick Garland, arguing that it was inappropriate to do so during an election year.  Hence, Justice Amy Coney Barrett, 48 years old, was confirmed for a lifetime appointment on Oct. 26. It may interest Filipinos to know that there are now six Catholics sitting in the US high court.

The Democrats are indignant not only by the Senate Republicans’ seeming double standard but because Justice Ginsburg has been replaced by an ideological opposite, further tilting the 9-member court to a 6-3 conservative incline.

If Biden wins the presidency and the Democrats control both the Senate and the House of Representatives, they can enact legislation increasing the membership of the Supreme Court. Note, however, that the nine-member precedent has been in place for over 250 years or since 1869.

Then-senator Biden had previously opposed efforts for such an increase. But given this recent conservative appointment, candidate Biden went on record last Oct. 22 saying that if he wins the presidency, he will form a bi-partisan commission of scholars to propose recommendations for judicial reform.

Counting the votes

Unlike the Philippines where the votes are tallied by a national commission, America counts ballots on a state by state basis. The Philippines has always marveled at how quickly and accurately the US can determine the winners in a political contest. We know fully well that the longer the count takes, the greater the possibility of electoral fraud. In this regard, the Philippines’ management of its 2016 elections was in accord with US best practices in terms of accuracy and transparency, plus the holding of four presidential and vice presidential debates in different cities using different formats.

But with the COVID pandemic still ravaging the US, the 50 states had to review their existing election rules and introduce innovative voting methods. Indeed, in the past weeks, the country has seen an unprecedented fervor manifested in long lines of voters patiently waiting for several hours, many of whom exercising their right of suffrage for the first time. And with the surge of over 90 million “early votes,” the challenge on election night and the days ahead will be how to count all of the votes in a credible and efficient manner. We already hear political rumblings attacking the veracity and legality of mailed-in ballots which will play a crucial role in determining the winners. Parenthetically, election officials in the battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are not allowed to start processing mailed-in ballots until Election Day.

Amidst continuing COVID uncertainties, the world’s leading democracy will help calm global fears by demonstrating that it can conduct orderly elections, heal its political wounds and honor a long-standing tradition where the losing party graciously concedes to those who earned the people’s mandate.

The author served as chairman of the Commission on Elections from 2015 to 2017.