Philippines’ stakes in the UN Climate Summit

The global climate talks in Madrid this December must tackle an issue that has for too long been tiptoeing in the shadows of responses to the climate crisis: accountability. While scientific evidence on the emerging catastrophe is more frightening than ever, especially for countries like the Philippines on the front line, carbon emissions and global temperatures are heading, alarmingly, in the wrong direction. It is imperative that the UN’s COP25 summit be aligned to the big emitters—the top 10% of countries (20 of them) that make up 75% of global carbon discharges, led by China, the United States, India, Russia and Japan.

Making the top emitters accountable makes sense because global warming is the result of the sheer magnitude of atmospheric pollution. Given the dominance of these large economies in the crisis, their national policies make all the difference. The urgency for strong leadership from them has become more pressing because the United States, China and India are increasing their emissions. All countries, including the Philippines, need to participate in a climate solution, but fast results hinge on the biggest ones making a U-turn.

Climate change is no longer a distant phenomenon affecting faraway places. Today, the intensity of local catastrophes, like the 2013 Super Typhoon Yolanda or the great Kerala floods of 2018 or the deadly California fires of 2018 or this year’s Australian fires, can be linked to climate change caused by emissions. It is vital that the general public appreciate this link. 

Furthermore, policy leaders need to recognize that the payoffs from switching to a low-carbon growth path far outweigh the costs of making the transition. India, according to a World Bank estimate, could incur damage costs of 2.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2050 in the current climate trajectory. One estimate places the loss from climate change from extreme weather events for 82 countries at 3% of GDP by 2050.

These estimates of climate losses, however, are too low because previous projections understated the extent of the true threat. Higher temperatures are increasing energy consumption (for example, in cooling and refrigeration); and global warming is making forest fires more destructive, in turn contributing to new climatic extremes. Similarly, improved global elevation data show coastal levels , including in Southeast Asia, to be  much lower and the risk of floods much higher than earlier maps had suggested.

If the big carbon-emitting countries reduced their fossil fuel consumption they could count on spillover gains from others following them – and, conversely, losses caused by others following their bad practices. The US administration’s anti-environmental stance has had a knock-on effect on Brazil’s deforestation binge in the Amazon, and the obdurate stances of Russia and Saudi Arabia. Southeast Asia, including the Philippines is set to increase coal production, adding fuel to the climate fire. 

An encouraging development  is the price declines and greater competitiveness of renewable sources of energy, especially solar and wind, which can help countries achieve low-carbon growth. Even so, renewables still account for just 11% of global energy consumption, compared with 80% for fossil fuels. Solar and wind need to overcome technical and logistical impediments on production, storage and distribution. To counter this, strong policy support and subsidies, be it in the US or the Philippines, could vastly increase their usage.

The crucial question is how to get the leading carbon-emitters to drastically reduce fossil fuel consumption. The answer seems to be a sustained wave of public sentiment favoring bold climate action. Politicians with strong climate agendas for climate are making inroads in Europe and even in the United States, but this momentum needs to be kept up. Sadly, there are still too few national leaders in Asia championing climate action.

Setting up a G-5 of the top five emitters to tackle climate change in the world’s largest economies would e a nonstarter until the United States has a climate champion. In the meantime, a new G-20 of the top emitters, though more dispersed, would include Germany (the 6th largest emitter), which intends to phase out coal by 2038 and France (20th), whose president has been a leading voice for this cause.

COP 25 negotiators at the December 2–13 talks in Madrid will undoubtedly sound the alarm on the imminent danger of climate inaction. It must go further by announcing a new G-20 plan of action with 2020 as the year that started to change the climate trajectory. COP 25, the 25th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, should call on the leaders of the top carbon-emitting countries to take responsibility for reversing the dangerous climate trend – and Southeast Asia, in its own interest, should make its voice heard.

*Vinod Thomas, Visiting Professor, Asian Institute of Management, Manila.