Dangerously possible
In a speech delivered at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the largest Asian security summit held recently in Singapore, US Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan warned China to stop “behavior that erodes other nations’ sovereignty and sows distrust of China’s intentions.” He also reiterated America’s “commitment to the region and investing in programs to secure it.” The US also called out the excessive militarization of man-made islands by China. All parties in the region must have good relationships with one another. Shanahan was one of the first to speak at the summit.
China most definitely did not take these veiled statements sitting down. For the first time in 12 years, China sent a high-ranking official to the annual summit. Chinese Defense Minister, Gen. Wei Fenghe, defiantly stated that the People's Liberation Army “would not yield a single inch of the country's sacred land,” implying the South China Sea, its man-made islands and Taiwan. While not mentioning the US, he implied that countries outside the region should not use freedom of navigation, specifically using warships as an excuse to undermine their sovereignty. He adds that although China is not looking for trouble, they will not hesitate to confront anyone who wants it. He made clear the issue of Taiwan’s eventual repatriation with the motherland. Such is the current state of US-China relations, also affected by a growing trade war where both countries have leveled tariffs at each other’s products. The speed and strength of the Chinese military, apparently preparing for a conflict with America, must also be noteworthy.
The Coast Guard recently experienced blocking of their satellite phones while sailing close to Mischief Reef, an island controlled by China. It wasn’t the first time they experienced this. A similar incident also occurred while sailing near Panatag Shoal, an area well within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone. China is making it clear that while President Duterte is cozying up to them, their claim to the South China Sea is non-negotiable. Military aircraft from Australia also claim they were targeted by lasers while flying close to the man-made islands, something China denies doing.
We and other Southeast Asian countries are in the middle of a conflict between two superpowers. America is a long-standing ally while China is currently being wooed by President Duterte. But no matter how much Duterte wants China to be its best friend in Asia, it is apparent the issue of the South China Sea has a foregone conclusion. What exactly happens to our claim? If Gen. Fenghe is ready to act with hostility, what can we do? Communication with our vessels is already being blocked. Will our civilian aircraft soon experience the same? Defense Secretary Lorenzana also attended the defense summit and warned that countries should not sleepwalk into a war. Well said. With posturing obviously happening by the US, its allies like France, Australia, and Japan, a small miscalculation in the open sea is dangerously possible.
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