Leading in the south: Magpale, Davide, Caminero, Calderon
This columnist was on the ground in the last three days. I have deployed volunteers to scan the eight towns of the seventh (voting population of 139,790) and the seven towns of the second district (total voters of 145,386).
Based on random sampling, my bold prediction is that Governor Hilario P Davide III will win very big in the south. He will carry almost all towns, even in Dumanjug, Badian, and Dalaguete. Vice Governor Agnes A Magpale, although by slim margin, will most probably give Gwen F Garcia a surprise by also carrying both the second and the seventh districts because of her tremendous lead in Argao and other smaller towns.
Vice Governor Agnes may have to work harder in Dumanjug, Badian and Dalaguete, but Governor Junjun's popularity in these three big towns will neutralize Gwen's lead there.
Congressman John Peter Calderon will win overwhelmingly over Nelson Garcia. It is recalled that Nelson even lost in his own town, Dumanjug, in 2013 despite the fact that he was the incumbent. He was beaten by a very young man, Gungun Z Gica. This coming election, if it was Winston running against Calderon, I predicted earlier that Winston would carry the seventh district, albeit by a small margin. But Nelson, I am sorry to say this, cannot win over Calderon.
The Calderons, Almendrases, and the Duranos are pouring in tremendous logistics to win big in the seventh this time. The Garcia fund will be used in six other districts. The seventh will get a small share. Calderon even won over Pablo John, the bar topnotcher who has shifted to the third. How can Nelson beat Calderon this time? Calderon is the incumbent and most of the mayors are with him, including Dumanjug mayor Gica in the hometown of the Garcias.
Willy Caminero will carry Argao and win in all barangays in his bailiwick 3-to-1. His opponent Ronnie Cesante is a friend of mine, but his bid will not prosper this time. Ronnie will only win in Dalaguete and perhaps in Alcoy and Boljoon, but only slightly. His strength is in the coastal voting precincts. On the other hand, in the mountain barangays of Dalaguete and all second district towns, Willy is very strong. He is always seen as the champion of the mountain folks. He has helped many villagers in the highlands and the strong village leaders are with Willy.
In the seventh district, Garcia will find it very hard to beat Calderon because almost all the mayors, and vice mayors, and 80 percent of the councilors and barangay captains are with the incumbent congressman. The voters in Ginatilan, Malabuyoc, Alegria, Moalboal and Alcantara and even in Ronda will most probably go for Calderon. He will win easily in these towns with a combined voting population of more than 70,000. Out of that number, Calderon can easily get 50,000 votes with Garcia getting only 20,000. It is in the bigger towns of Dumanjug and Badian where Calderon will be beaten but by only 12,000 votes.
All in all, Calderon will win over Garcia by about 18,000. Willy Caminero will beat Cesante by about 25,000 votes. Those who disagree should conduct their own survey. I am interested because I was born in Argao. My late mom was from Ronda and my late dad was from Dumanjug. These are my homelands.
But the more important thing I want to know is: What are their visions and strategic plans for the south?
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